The xG stats shine a light on where things are going wrong for Burnley this season.
Burnley have given themselves a faint glimmer of hope in the relegation battle after taking four points from their last two matches.
The Clarets looked to be sinking without a trace, but then came from 2-0 down to beat Crystal Palace 3-2 away earlier in February. Then, following a miserable 2-1 home defeat to Mansfield in the FA Cup, they picked themselves up to snatch a 1-1 draw at Stamford Bridge, courtesy of Zian Flemming’s 93rd-minute strike.
Scott Parker’s side are still eight points adrift of safety, but just about remain in the fight thanks to their recent resilience. Burnley are going to need to keep up the clinical streak they’ve shown in recent weeks, but how do their prospects look when analysing the Premier League expected goals standings?
Burnley xG compared to Premier League rivals
Chelsea - 56.81
Arsenal - 56.60
Man City - 53.38
Man Utd - 49.80
Liverpool - 49.68
Brentford - 48.19
Crystal Palace - 46.34
Bournemouth - 45.54
Newcastle United - 44.32
Leeds United - 41.56
Brighton - 39.98
Aston Villa - 36.62
West Ham - 34.78
Fulham - 33.61
Everton - 33.58
Nottingham Forest - 32.99
Tottenham Hotspur - 31.96
Sunderland - 28.16
Wolves - 25.78
Burnley - 25.74
Only Nottingham Forest (25), Sunderland (28) and Wolves (18) have scored fewer goals than Burnley (29) this season. However, more worrying than that is the fact that the Clarets have overperformed their xG by 3.26, according to Understat. Two of the Clarets’ strikes have come from outside the box, while another five have been headers, which are traditionally given a lower xG value.
And while Burnley have massively overperformed their xG, some of their close relegation rivals have underperformed to a large degree - not least Nottingham Forest and Wolves, who are 7.99 and 7,78 goals behind their xG values, respectively, while Leeds United have underperformed by 4.56. It’ll come as no surprise to see the likes of Chelsea, Arsenal, Manchester City and Manchester United at the top of the xG stakes, while Crystal Palace perhaps have the most eye-catching numbers, with their 29 goals a whopping 17.34 behind what they should have scored at this stage.
Burnley’s lack of output in the final third has only been magnified by the fact that they have the Premier League’s worst defence, conceding 52 goals in 27 games so far. However, it’s still the lack of goals hurting them most, with six of their last 11 games ending in a draw. If Scott Parker’s side could manage just one more goal in each of those stalemates, they’d be 12 points better off and 16th in the table.
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