Manchester City could face a 40 to 60-point deduction if found guilty of the 115 alleged financial breaches, according to football finance expert Kieran Maguire
An individual, dressed in a dark hooded jacket, is visibly distressed with their hands covering their face, standing amidst a crowd, possibly during a sports event. In the foreground, the official emblem of Manchester City football club is prominently displayed.
An individual, dressed in a dark hooded jacket, is visibly distressed with their hands covering their face, standing amidst a crowd, possibly during a sports event. In the foreground, the official emblem of Manchester City football club is prominently displayed.
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Manchester City face the prospect of a 40 to 60-point deduction should they be convicted of the gravest allegations levelled against them, a football finance expert has warned. Both City and the Premier League remain in limbo awaiting the outcome of proceedings into 115 alleged financial rule violations by the club spanning 2009 to 2018.
The 12-week tribunal examining City's purported breaches of the Premier League's financial regulations wrapped up in December 2024, yet the independent commission has still to publish its findings. City have refuted all accusations and are believed to be optimistic about exoneration.
It has now been 14 months since the tribunal concluded, with the commission continuing its deliberations. Football finance specialist Kieran Maguire, who has monitored the case meticulously, estimates around 500,000 pieces of evidence were submitted by both sides throughout the hearing.
Maguire anticipates a ruling within the coming months, with City and the Premier League expected to receive 24 hours' advance warning before public disclosure. Whilst forecasting the result remains impossible, he suggests recent precedents indicate just how monumental the consequences could prove for City should the verdict go against them.
"If we take a look at precedents, we've had Everton and Nottingham Forest with six and four-point deductions for a single offence covering a three-year period. The accusations against Manchester City cover a nine-year period, so it's far bigger. The numbers involved, we're not certain about, but they're likely to be quite significant.
"So I think you have to add a zero to what we've seen from Forest and Everton, so somewhere between a 40 and 60-point deduction would, I think, on merit, be consistent with what we've seen from other decisions on logic. If they want to go further then we don't know the severity."
"In the cases of both Forest and Everton, they were to do with FFP [ Financial Fair Play ] purely. The accusations against Manchester City are why it's taking so long. Corporate fraud is a very serious accusation. The board of directors would have to go. How can you be in a meeting room with other members of the Premier League and the Premier League itself, of whom you're a shareholder, with this accusation being proven?".
"If you take a look at what happened with Juventus in Serie A, their board had to resign when they were claiming things about player wages that were proven to be untrue. I think there's an honesty thing here, if Manchester City are proven to be guilty. And that could mean a complete restructure of the club."
Considerable frustration surrounds the protracted timeline, attributed to the intricate nature of the proceedings and the requirement for the three-member panel to reach a collective verdict.
"[Judging] by the cases similar to a fraud case, I think we're probably into the final reaches of getting a decision," Maguire added. "I think part of the challenge is that, because there are three very senior people on the call for making that final judgement, getting those three together at the same time is actually very difficult and that has delayed the case.
"It should be resolved in the next few months, but we've said this before. But there's an awful lot of evidence to go through and the charges are very very serious so you've got to have enough evidence."