FC Internazionale Milano v Arsenal FC - UEFA Champions League 2025/26 League Phase MD7
Arsenal are looking to win the Champions League for the first time this year (Image: Getty)
Arsenal are waiting to learn their fate in the Champions League draw on Friday morning. The Premier League leaders topped the league phase table with a perfect record of eight wins from eight games. The Gunners will learn their round of 16 opponents and also their potential path to the final in Budapest on May 30, with another five teams from the English top flight also joining them in the first knockout round.
Mikel Arteta’s men already know the two potential opponents they could face in the last 16. Thanks to finishing first, they will face the winners of the ties between 16th and 18th, and 15th and 17th. Bayer Leverkusen finished 16th and got the better of Olympiacos, 2-0 on aggregate, while Borussia Dortmund chucked away a 2-0 first-leg lead to lose Atalanta 4-3 on aggregate. That means Arsenal know they face a trip to Germany next month, with the return leg guaranteed to be at the Emirates thanks to their seeding. Express Sport have simulated their draw...
In our simulation, Arsenal face Atalanta in the round of 16. The Italian side are only seventh in Serie A after only winning 12 of 26 league games, but thrashed Borussia Dortmund 4-1 in their second leg. They also defeated Chelsea at home in the league phase. They are no walkovers but Arsenal would be confident of progression.
If Arsenal beat Atalanta, in our draw, the winner of Real Madrid’s clash with Man City awaits. City have home advantage in the second leg and would be hopeful of revenge over the Spaniards, who dumped them out in the play-off knockouts last season. The two teams have met six times in the knockouts since 2015-16, with Real Madrid progressing in five of those ties.
Either team are a daunting quarter-final opponent but there would be extra intensity in a two-legged affair with City, their Premier League title rivals and Carabao Cup final opposition. Should Arsenal reach the semi-finals, our draw means they would face one of PSG, Chelsea, Tottenham or Galatasaray.
PSG would be fancied to beat Chelsea across 180 minutes, and likewise, Spurs are favourites against Galatasaray. Holders PSG would be favoured against a Spurs side battling relegation in the Premier League, and that would mean a repeat of last year’s semi-final - which Arsenal lost 3-1 on aggregate when losing home and away.
The Ligue 1 side are not as strong as they were last season, although they were forced to navigate the knockout play-offs last year en route to winning the competition for the first time in their history. The French treble-winners would pose an almighty test of a Gunners team still likely to be thick in the heat of a domestic title fight come late April and early May.
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Athletic Club v Arsenal FC - UEFA Champions League 2025/26 League Phase MD1
Arsenal won all of their eight Champions League league phase matches (Image: Getty)
Bayern Munich finished second in the league phase and represent one of the most formidable teams in Europe this season. On top of their 22 goals in eight European games, they have plundered 85 in 23 Bundesliga games. And our draw sees them installed as the favourites to progress to the final on the other half of the draw.
Our simulation sees Bayern get Bayer Leverkusen in the last 16, who they should overcome handily. In the quarter-finals either Bodo/Glimt or Sporting would be favourable opposition. A semi-final test against one of Barcelona, Newcastle, Liverpool or Atletico Madrid would await. Bayern would be fancied against any of those sides. That could set up a mouthwatering showdown with Arsenal in Hungary as the six-time winners bid to stop the north Londoners from lifting their first. The two sides have already met this year, with Arsenal winning 3-1 at the Emirates in November which was the only time the Bavarians have lost in Europe in 2025-26.
Arsenal's potential Champions League route
R16: Atalanta
QF: Man City
F: Bayern Munich
Express Sport's simulated round of 16 in full
PSG vs Chelsea
Galatasaray vs Tottenham
Real Madrid vs Man City
Atalanta vs Arsenal
Newcastle vs Barcelona
Atletico Madrid vs Liverpool
Bodo/Glimt vs Sporting
Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich
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