Liverpool FC v Qarabag FK - UEFA Champions League 2025/26 League Phase MD8
Liverpool finished third in the Champions League league phase table (Image: Getty)
Liverpool are waiting to learn their fate in the Champions League draw on Friday morning. The Premier League champions finished third in the league phase despite defeats to Galatasaray and PSV. The Reds ended strongly with comfortable wins over Marseille and Qarabag to secure their spot in the round of 16 without having to navigate the knockout play-offs. And tomorrow the Reds will learn their round of 16 opponents, as well as their potential path to the final in Budapest on May 30, with another five Premier League teams also in the first knockout round.
Because of the tournament’s new format, the Reds already know they will face one of two particular teams in the last 16. They are due to face one of the winners of the tie between 13th and 20th, and 14th and 19th. Atletico Madrid finished 14th and overcame Club Brugge. Despite drawing the first leg 3-3 in Belgium, they were 4-1 victors in the second leg. While Juventus, who finished one place ahead of Atletico in 13th, trailed 5-2 to Galatasaray after the first leg in Turkey. Gala lost 3-1 in Turin last night but progressed 6-5 on aggregate. That means Liverpool are guaranteed to play an opponent they have already faced this season. Express Sport have simulated their draw...
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In our simulation, Liverpool are paired with Atletico. The Reds lost away to Galatasaray in September due to a controversial penalty but the Turkish Super Lig leaders represent a slightly easier task than Diego Simeone’s Atleti. Yet it is the La Liga giants they must once more face in our draw. They beat Los Rojiblancos 3-2 at Anfield in their Champions League opener this season.
Liverpool are on a three-match winning streak against Atletico but lost to them in their last two-legged tie, in 2019-20. If they get past Simeone this time, our draw pits the English title-holders with the winner of Newcastle’s last-16 match with Barcelona. The La Liga champions beat the Magpies earlier this season and would be favourites over two legs.
That would mean Liverpool take on Barca for the first time since their iconic 4-0 semi-final comeback in 2019. Barca are a fierce threat with the likes of Lamine Yamal and Raphinha but they also conceded 14 times in eight league phase games on their way to finishing fifth. They lost 3-0 to a Chelsea team viewed as inferior to this Liverpool outfit.
If the Merseyside club dump a second Spanish side out, then their semi-final opponents will be one of four clubs. In our draw, those four are Bodo/Glimt, Sporting, Bayer Leverkusen or Bayern Munich. Bayern will be favourites to beat Leverkusen and then in the quarter-finals would be heavily fancied to see off either Bodo/Glimt, despite stunning Man City and Inter Milan, or Sporting.
That would set up a heavyweight showdown with the Bundesliga kings in the final four. Bayern finished second in the league phase, losing only one of their eight games - 3-1 away at Arsenal. Facing the Bavarians, who are also six-time European Cup winners, would give Luis Diaz an immediate reunion with the Reds after the Colombian winger left last summer for £65.5million.
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Liverpool FC v Atletico de Madrid - UEFA Champions League 2025/26 League Phase MD1
Liverpool are again pitted against Atletico Madrid in our draw (Image: Getty)
Diaz and Harry Kane have a combined 62 goals and 20 assists across all competitions so far this season, so Liverpool would face an almighty task to reach the final. And if they did secure a spot in Budapest for their two Hungarians, Dominik Szoboszlai and Milos Kerkez, Premier League leaders Arsenal could be their opponents in the final.
The Gunners are looking to win the European Cup for the first time in their history and went eight wins from eight to top the league phase table. Our draw pits them against Atalanta, possibly Man City and possibly PSG to reach the final, so their road to Hungary is a tricky one. But Arsenal are a very difficult team to beat and will fancy their chances of contesting a first final in this tournament since 2006. Liverpool have won and drawn against the Londoners so far this season and a final between the pair would make for a fascinating contest.
Liverpool's potential Champions League route
R16: Atletico Madrid
QF: Barcelona
SF: Bayern Munich
F: Arsenal
Express Sport's simulated round of 16 in full
PSG vs Chelsea
Galatasaray vs Tottenham
Real Madrid vs Man City
Atalanta vs Arsenal
Newcastle vs Barcelona
Atletico Madrid vs Liverpool
Bodo/Glimt vs Sporting
Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich
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