That is the conclusion reached by the team behind Opta’s so-called ‘super computer’ with 11 games to go.
And that data may well come into Tony Bloom’s thinking as he assesses the season and the work being done by head coach Fabian Hurzeler.
Opta have looked at the numbers and underlying trends and reckon the Seagulls should be 11th in the league at the moment.
They forecast a mid-table finish with the most likely placing currently 12th.
And they have explained some of the figures which stand out for the Seagulls.
Jonny Whitmore, of Opta, said: “We do Expected Points, looking at the underlying performance. Should you have won this game?
“Brighton should be four points better off this season, bringing them up to 11th.
“If you were to simulate the match based on each individual shot that happened, and you simulate it 10,000 times, you can see on average how many times you would have won that game.
“Tony Bloom would definitely use some sort of underlying performance model.
“Football is a very low-scoring sport so goals aren’t necessarily predictive of future performance.
“Metrics like xG are more predictive so it is a really good measure to see how the rest of the season or beyond is more likely to go.
“If you have under-performed by four points, that is banked. It can't be changed.
“But, going forward, if you are still performing at that base level of quality, you should go back to that points-per-game level.
“The season simulator model, which is sadly not a giant super computer, works similar to Expected Points.
Albion deserved more at Aston Villa (Image: Richard Parkes)
“It is a bit more complicated in terms of the underlying side of things in that we use a global team rating system called the Opta Power Rankings so we can rate against 14,000 teams worldwide.
“Based on that we can simulate the season and Brighton is currently quite a spread in terms of predicted final position.”
These are some of the key metrics which have affected Albion’s season.
Late goals
Albion have been hit by very late goals recently, notably against Everton and Fulham.
But their record in terms of conceding on 90 minutes or in added time is not bad.
It has happened four times, including that which cost them two points at home to Fulham in the opening fixture.
Ten teams have conceded more in that time frame, led by Leeds on nine.
Late winners
It has been a season of late, late goals which will smash the previous Premier League record.
So far, there have been 27 90-minutes-plus winners which is joint top with the 2023-24 campaign with several weeks of fixtures to go.
There were 22 late strikes last season and 26 in 2021-22.
Given that, Albion fans might be wondering when their team will join in the late, late fun.
Whitmore said: “Increased stoppage time is a factor, match intensity is going up. The modern game is definitely trending in that direction.
“And the Premier League is getting more and more competitive due to revenue so there a lot more close games.”
Albion shot chart for the season so far (Image: Opta)
Set-piece goals
Excluding penalties, Albion have scored seven goals from set-plays.
Only four teams have fewer, all on six, namely Manchester City, Wolves, Sunday’s opponents Nottingham Forest and, perhaps surprisingly, Brentford.
Set-piece goals include those which come at any time before the defence resets.
So, for example, Max De Cuyper’s close-range header at Chelsea counts, even though the ball was worked short and passes were exchanged before it was delivered into the box.
Whitmore said: “There are Premier League set-piece coaches who get their bonuses paid from these types of definitions so they can be quite contentious!”
Percentage of set-piece goals
Newcastle have scored a Prem-high 42.4% of their goals from set-pieces, followed by Crystal Palace on 41.7% and Leeds with 39.4%.
Albion’s percentage is low at 21.2%, ahead of Brentford (17.6%) and Manchester City (11.3%).
Where that might be significant is that the Seagulls have only scored first in ten of their 27 matches.
Whitmore said: “Brighton are third bottom in proportion of goals scored from set-pieces.
“That might point to rarely getting the first goal.
“A lot of first goals this season are coming from set-pieces. Facing a lot of low blocks this season, breaking the deadlock with a set-piece is definitely more common.”
Fixture difficulty
Who has the toughest run-in (Image: Opta)
Opta have evaluated the difficulty of each game and reckon Chelsea face the toughest schedule between now and the end of the season.
They are very closely followed by Crystal Palace, which might give Albion hope of finishing above their rivals.
It also looks at the moment like West Ham, Everton and Burnley have difficult run-ins.
Albion’s difficulty of schedule ranks joint 12th. Leeds have the easiest, Opta reckon.
In terms of the title race, Arsenal have a marginally more straightforward run-in than Manchester City but there is next to nothing in it.
Where will they finish?
Where will the teams finish? (Image: Opta)
Opta currently give Arsenal an 83.5%% chance of winning the title.
Manchester City rate 15.7% and Aston Villa are rank outsiders at 0.7%.
Albion’s chances of slipping into 18th place and relegation are rated at 0.1% and fifth place, meaning Champions League, is 0.4%.
If top eight means Europe, there is a 15.5% chance of creeping in, which maybe feels generous.
In reality, Albion are looking at something between 11th and 14th inclusive.
Right now, the most likely is 12th at 13.6% but the margins are so narrow that can easily change.
Crystal Palace’s currently most likely finish is 14th.
West Ham stand a 60.3% chance of finishing 18th but Nottingham Forest are still in danger ahead of their trip to the Amex.
Their chances of finishing 18th are 20.5% and there is a 2.3% chance of 19th.
Spurs currently stand a 4.8% chance of going down.
Over-performers
Aston Villa have Opta pretty confused. The stats and underling trends say Unai Emerys side should be 12th at the moment, so one place below their expected position for Albion.
Instead they are third in the table.
Whitmore said: “Next season I would expect Villa to drop back significantly and really not be in those top positions. That is how the model should be used.”
Prem over and under-performers (Image: Opta)
Under-performers
This is where Albion come in, standing 14th when they should be 11th.
Crystal Palace and Leeds are the biggest under-performers, according to Opta.
Palace have the data of a seventh-placed side but are now in 13th.
Jonny Whitemore spoke to TheArgus as part of a campaign between Opta and Xbox to find football's unluckiest fan, using the specially developed xJ Calculator