Aston Villa’s attack is clearly lacking confidence, but that must change quickly if they are to maintain their Champions League position and make progress in the Europa League
Aston Villa manager Unai Emery
Aston Villa manager Unai Emery(Image: Getty Images)
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There’s no single reason for Aston Villa’s drop in form, but what is certain is that Unai Emery’s squad must rediscover their rhythm - and very quickly.
It’s no exaggeration to say that the next three weeks of Villa’s campaign, before the March international break, could be season-defining.
Crucial league matches against fellow Champions League qualification hopefuls Chelsea and Manchester United fall either side of Villa’s return to Lille’s Decathlon Arena for the first leg of their Europa League round-of-16 tie.
Then, after playing at Old Trafford, Villa host Lille for the return leg in a competition they must win - because now is the time to get over the line and finally end the club’s 30-year trophy drought.
While European glory cannot be guaranteed come May, staying in the top five is essential as Villa aim to return to the Champions League, either via winning the Europa League or through their league position.
The two objectives go hand in hand: perform well in the league, and the confidence gained will likely translate into progress in the Europa League too.
So losing to bottom club Wolves is the worst possible way to enter the final third of the season, with Chelsea, Lille, and United looming over the next fortnight.
Selection calls from Emery and injuries are two reasons for Villa’s recent dip in form, but more worryingly, it’s their goal output that highlights a lack of confidence among the forwards.
Villa have scored only one goal from open play in their last six matches, with four goals total in that span - two of which were late set-piece goals against Leeds and Brighton, and Tammy Abraham scored from a free-kick routine against Newcastle in the FA Cup, despite appearing offside.
At the start of the season, Villa failed to score in their first five matches across all competitions, before winning 17 of their next 19. This demonstrates that the team can string together a run of form, but for now, there’s no indication of when their form might return, especially after becoming only the second team to lose to Wolves in the league this season.
Apart from Abraham, few Villa players can feel confident they will score when stepping onto the pitch.
Morgan Rogers, who bailed Villa out earlier in the season against the likes of Leeds, Manchester United, and West Ham, has scored two goals in his last 10 matches in all competitions - a relatively strong return compared with some of his teammates.
Emery’s first-choice striker, Ollie Watkins, has scored just once in 11 games, netting in only six of the 38 matches he has played across all competitions this season.
Emi Buendia, arguably enjoying his best season for Villa, has scored only twice in 18 matches, though both were crucial opening goals against Tottenham in the FA Cup and Newcastle in the league.
Jadon Sancho opened his account for Villa against Fenerbahce, but that remains his only goal in 27 matches. Leon Bailey has scored once in 33 club games for Villa and AS Roma.
Amadou Onana’s primary role is not scoring, but he has only found the net once in 16 appearances, despite being a presence on set-pieces.
Douglas Luiz, who returned to Villa from Juventus in January, has gone over two years without a goal for Villa, Juventus, or Nottingham Forest, last scoring in the 4-2 win over Liverpool in February 2024 - a total of 64 appearances ago.
Having sufficient quality in the final third is one thing, but low attacking confidence is far from ideal for a team that needs to quickly reignite its form to keep its season on track.
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