Eddie Howe is struggling to address Newcastle United’s problems in the Premier League this season.
Newcastle United head into Wednesday night’s match against Manchester United sitting 13th in the table and closer to the relegation zone than the Champions League places with 10 games remaining.
The Magpies have lost five of their last six games, winning just one of their last seven. The side have also struggled defensively with no clean sheet in their last 11 matches and conceding three or more goals on six occasions since the turn of the year.
Yet there are a couple of stats where Newcastle shine. Only Premier League leaders Arsenal have outperformed The Magpies when it comes to ‘expected wins’ this season.
The xG argument for NUFC
Expected wins is a metric based on the expected goals of a side compared to the expected goals conceded. Newcastle have outperformed their opponents on xG in 19 of their 28 Premier League matches so far this season.
Yet the reality is hugely different with Newcastle struggling to win games and keep clean sheets.
When asked in December what makes him confident Newcastle can turn this season into a successful one in the Premier League, Howe told The Gazette: “Well, I think if you look at us statistically, goal creation has been our biggest issue, I think statistically we're the second-best defensive team [for expected goals against] in the Premier League this year ,which is no mean feat.
“Despite the fact we've conceded late goals, our defensive structures have been pretty sound. It's with the ball and goal creation, chance creation, that has always been our big strength. It seems to have deserted us a little bit, and that's the big challenge for us, is to get more output in front of goal, get more from all areas of the team to supply chances for our front players, and our front players to contribute more in helping them do that as well.
“I think that's the area we have to improve, then you add loads of different layers on, you set plays and for and against have got to be better, and then I could go on until the end of time, in terms of the small things you need to turn good performances into more wins.”
Since those comments, Newcastle have been able to create chances and score goals but their defensive record has taken a hit. Lapses in concentration and individual errors have proven costly to the side.
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Eddie Howe’s wordless response spoke volumes about Newcastle United struggles
When asked about his previous comments and why Newcastle’s reality is so different to what the stats suggest is to be expected, Howe struggled to find an answer.
The Newcastle boss sighed before stating, ‘good question,’ and shrugging. It was a gesture that spoke volumes as he searches for the answers to his side’s struggles this season.
Newcastle’s players recently held a dressing room inquest following the 3-2 defeat to Brentford at St James’ Park. While performances picked up on the back of it, the side have won one and lost two of their three Premier League games since.
Eddie Howe during his pre-Manchester United press conference.placeholder image
Eddie Howe during his pre-Manchester United press conference. | NUFC TV
Howe then added: “That one is sometimes in the lap of the gods. I think when you get, using xG, I'm a big believer in xG. I believe it does tell a story.
“I think certainly over one or two games it can have big variants like you speak about. Over a long term, probably over a season, you'd expect the mean to drop to what it should be.
“So hopefully that means there's a lot more clean sheets ahead for us!”
Howe was able to put a positive spin on things but he and his Newcastle side will ultimately be judged by the reality of the final 10 games of the Premier League season.
March is shaping up to be a crucial month for the club with the FA Cup against Manchester City, Champions League against Barcelona and crucial Premier League matches against Manchester United, Chelsea and Sunderland. It could really be make or break for Howe’s side.
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