Despite Michael Carrick’s impressive start to life at Manchester United, there is a major tactical problem that must be solved to secure the head coach role permanently.
When Michael Carrick arrived at Manchester United following the sacking of Ruben Amorim, a lot was said about his work at Middlesbrough. An area of concern pointed out by those who followed Carrick’s reign at the Riverside Stadium was how he set his team up out of possession.
Steve Holland joined Carrick at United as his assistant, and many assumed Holland could potentially help Carrick in terms of out-of-possession tactics. During his time at Chelsea, Holland worked with the likes of Jose Mourinho and Antonio Conte, two managers renowned for their ability to set up their teams defensively.
In Carrick’s first two games, United looked very solid without the ball. Against Manchester City, United conceded only 0.45 xG (expected goals). Against Arsenal, that number was 1.19 – higher but still a respectable showing against arguably the best team in Europe.
Against Tottenham, where United played with ten men for the majority of the game, Carrick’s side conceded an xG of 0.49, and 0.38 against Crystal Palace. Against West Ham, United conceded an xG of 1.11. Against Everton, that number was 0.63.
The Toffies did put United under serious pressure and had ten corners, but Senne Lammens delivered a cross-claiming performance of the very highest quality to nullify any serious threat from David Moyes’ side.
All of those numbers above are pretty solid, but there are two games in particular where United’s off-the-ball set-up has been really poor. Those were the games against Fulham and Newcastle, even after the Magpies went down to ten men.
Fulham created an xG of 1.94 at Old Trafford. For context, the Cottagers have created an xG of 1.2 per 90 on average in the Premier League this season.
Against Newcastle, Eddie Howe’s side created an xG of 2.48, even though they played the entirety of the second half with a man less. On average, they have created an xG of 1.5 per 90 in the Premier League this season.
The plus one in midfield
Carrick has set up United in a 4-4-2 off the ball. Given that most teams play with three midfielders, this means most teams have an extra man in midfield.
Allowing the opposition an overload in certain areas is normal, but teams typically try to leave the opposition’s spare man in wide areas where he is not easily accessible. United allow this free man in the middle of the pitch, which makes playing out from the back a lot easier for opposition teams.
Credit: MUTV
As seen in above, Casemiro was responsible for marking Joelinton, while Kobbie Mainoo had to mark Jacob Ramsey. This left Sandro Tonali free, but in the mid-block, this wasn’t a major issue.
The front two, Benjamin Sesko and Bruno Fernandes, were able to block Tonali’s passing lanes. From a tactical point of view, United’s mid-block is fine as long as the opposition can’t access their deepest midfielder. The issue with the plus one in midfield arises when United want to press high.
Credit: MUTV
As can be seen, in a deep build-up against a double pivot, Mainoo is given the impossible task of having to mark both deep midfielders. Casemiro was higher up the pitch, marking Joelinton. The passing lanes to the midfielders are also completely open, as both Sesko and Fernandes were focused on closing the passing lanes to the two centre-backs.
It is weird that United seemingly encourage the opposition to play through the middle for two reasons. The first one is that’s the area of the pitch where Newcastle had an extra man. The second reason is that most teams try to force opponents out wide, as it’s usually easier to regain possession in wide areas.
This wasn’t only a problem against Newcastle. Against Fulham, it was the exact same set-up, and it caused the same problems. Fulham regularly played through United’s press with ease, and a big reason for that was the extra man in midfield. In a 2v1 situation, there’s very little Mainoo can do.
Credit: MUTV
In the image above, there is a small difference compared to the example used from the game against Newcastle. Fernandes is blocking the passing lane to Sander Berge, making it harder for Bernd Leno to find him. However, if Leno were to play a pass to Jorge Cuenca, the left centre-back, Fernandes would have to press, and at that point Mainoo would once again be stranded in the middle.
Fulham didn’t only exploit United’s press by finding Berge and playing through the middle. They also used the extra man in the build-up in different ways.
Credit: MUTV
In the image above, Matheus Cunha has pressed Timothy Castagne, and Mbeumo has then dropped deep to pick up the run of Alex Iwobi. This has left Joachim Andersen, Bryan Mbeumo’s man, completely free, and Castange could then play a simple pass to the Danish centre-back.
At that point, you’d expect either Casemiro or Mainoo to press Andersen, but they don’t, probably due to confusion caused by all the rotations.
Again, you don’t have to press man-to-man to press well, but the top pressing teams in Europe dictate where their opponent has the free man and make sure that man cannot be easily found. United’s press, however, makes it extremely easy for opponents to find the free man.
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How does Carrick solve this issue?
There are two main ways in which Carrick and his coaching staff can fix United’s press. The first one is adapting a man-to-man approach. From a tactical point of view, this is the most straightforward solution. Each player simply has to follow their man.
However, it requires concentration and elite athletic quality all over the pitch, and that athleticism is something United lack. Pressing man-to-man also means the opposition can drag their markers into areas they may not be comfortable in.
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The other, and potentially more realistic, solution is to continue allowing the opponent a plus-one in build-up, but simply making it harder for the opponent to find the free man.
The solution is the image above. When the opponent plays the goal kick, United should adopt a man-to-man approach on the ball’s side of the pitch. In this example, the free man is Kieran Trippier on the right, and even though Dan Burn actually switched the play to him, that’s not something that will happen very often.
This approach would allow United to press high up the pitch effectively, whilst also maintaining a plus one in the defensive line to aid in winning first and second balls.
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