To survive any relegation fight, clubs need a turning point. Nottingham Forest need only look to their recent past for signs of optimism as to why theirs may yet be to come in the league.
After last Sunday’s 0-0 draw with Fulham, the situation appeared bleak. The Reds didn’t lose, and actually climbed back out of the bottom three, but the mood at the City Ground was as low as if they had done.
Vitor Pereira was as upbeat as you would expect him to be in his post-match press conference; it would not help the cause were he to be any different. But the feeling on the banks of the Trent and the general consensus on social media afterwards was one of a dark sense of foreboding.
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Thursday night’s triumph over FC Midtjylland will have done players and supporters the world of good. But while Pereira has steered his side to the quarter-finals in the Europa League, he is yet to register a win on the domestic front. He knows that needs to change - and fast.
Why and how it has come to this, with the club’s fourth manager of the campaign in a desperate scramble for points, is for another day. For now, the Reds have eight games remaining to save themselves.
It is a position Forest have been in before; their first two years back in the top flight were spent in relegation dogfights. Achieving survival, first under Steve Cooper and then with Nuno Espirito Santo at the helm, was a hard slog - and it is likely to be so again.
History lesson
Survival was always likely to be a battle in Forest’s first year in the top flight after promotion. With 30 games gone in 2022/23, the Reds had 27 points - two fewer than they have now - and were 18th in the table, below Everton on goal difference.
They had just lost 2-0 away to Aston Villa - Jonjo Shelvey playing an infamously key role in that defeat - and would go on to suffer another two defeats to make it four in a row. Yet they still stayed up. In their final eight games, with Cooper in charge, they picked up 11 points.
Big wins against Brighton and Hove Albion, Southampton and, memorably, at home to Arsenal, got the job done. The Reds finished 16th with 38 points.
The following term, with 30 games gone Forest had 22 points. Admittedly that included a four-point deduction for breaching financial rules, but they would still have been in danger heading into the final stretch regardless.
That year, they picked up 10 points in their final eight games to get over the line. The caveat is the 32 points the club survived with, in 17th place, probably won’t be enough this time around. Nevertheless, Pereira and the current squad should take encouragement from what a strong end to a season can do. There is certainly a lesson there in not giving up as the calendar turns to April.
99 problems…
Forest have certainly been more positive under Pereira than was the case under Sean Dyche. What hasn’t changed is their struggles with finding the back of the net.
Ninety-nine shots, but goals? Just one. That is the tale of the Reds’ last five home games in all competitions. Callum Hudson-Odoi’s strike against Fenerbahce is all they have to show for their attacking threat.
The problem first manifested itself in pre-season and has continued right the way through this term. Pereira would have to be a miracle worker to solve it, but he might just be about to pull a rabbit out of the hat.
With every passing week, the absence of Chris Wood has been ever more sorely felt. Igor Jesus has found the going tough in the Premier League and has started to look tired, while Lorenzo Lucca has offered very little since his debut header against Leeds United. Taiwo Awoniyi may well be the best interim solution and deserves to start against Spurs, but Forest really need Wood back - and they might not have to wait too much longer.
Pereira has said he hopes to have the 34-year-old available for “the last games”. Just having him around the squad will be a key boost as those around the club have conceded his calm head and experience have been missed as much as his goals.
Last term was a vintage one for Wood as he finished as the club’s top scorer with a superb 20-goal haul. It would be a big ask to expect him to repeat that form as soon as he comes back, but he can make a difference.
Forest are averaging more shots per game this season than last time around - 12.8 compared with 12.2 in 2024/25 - but they are not making them count. Their average shots on target per game is down from 4.37 to 3.87 and they are averaging 0.93 goals per game compared to 1.53 last season. Wood can hopefully finish a few of those chances off.
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Feeling at home
Sunday’s big clash against relegation rivals Tottenham Hotspur may be in the capital, but it is at the City Ground where Forest really need to find some form between now and May. They have gone seven without a win on the banks of the Trent in the league.
The last time Reds fans got to celebrate three points on home turf was back in December. That was against Spurs, when they triumphed 3-0.
Ominously, the last time the club went as many home games without a win in the top tier was in 1998/99, when they failed to beat the drop. Somehow, Pereira needs to turn that around.
Forest still have some huge games to come Trentside - games they need to target points from. Aston Villa, Newcastle United, Burnley and Bournemouth all have to visit the City Ground in the coming weeks.
Given the clash with bogey side the Cherries is on the final day, the dream scenario is for the Reds to be home (pun intended) and dry by that point. Fans can but hope anyway.
Maintaining morale
Pereira has made clear one of his most important tasks at present is to keep spirits high. He cannot allow the dressing room to become downbeat or to be low on confidence.
In a change to some of his predecessors, he allows music to be boomed out while the squad are put through their paces in training. It helps to keep the energy high.
Supporters can play a key role, too. Thursday night felt like the connection between players, staff and fans was back. There was a unity and togetherness evident as the visitors celebrated in front of the away end.
In previous seasons, that bond has been integral. And it can certainly be so again this time around.
In midweek, the Reds came through against the odds. There is a lesson there for their league predicament.
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