Sunderland face Newcastle United in the Tyne-Wear derby on Sunday
For much of this campaign, the debate on Wearside has been whether Sunderland can overcome their indifferent away form to at least near their imperious record on home turf.
As they head into one of their toughest games of the season, the picture has changed quickly . Perhaps inevitably, small margins have begun to go against them at the Stadium of Light where they have now lost three league games in succession. On the road, they overcame a brutal injury list to yield two of their best results of the campaign within days of each other to reach the magic 40-point mark.
The performances at Bournemouth and Leeds were not identical, in the former they went toe-to-toe with their opponent and created enough to win the contest outright on another day. At Leeds they took the three points but did so with a backs-to-the-wall defensive display, Habib Diarra's second-half penalty sealing an unlikely win on balance of play. Underpinning both, though, was a defensive resilience that Sunderland will need to replicate if they are to have any chance of leaving St James' Park with all three points. If Sunderland are to succeed, then we know what the game plan will look like. The Black Cats will press high when Newcastle try to build out from the back, but drop quickly into a low block if the hosts are able to play through. From there, they will have to defend like their lives depend on it, as they did so effectively and thrillingly in the latter stages at Elland Road. In possession they will have to pick their moments to break incisively, and make the most of any set-piece situations. From Leeds to Nottingham Forest to Chelsea, the template is there but the question is can Sunderland deliver it?
There is little doubt that to do so, Régis Le Bris needs good news on the injury front this week. Nordi Mukiele was arguably man of the match in the return fixture, a player who seems to rise to the biggest occasions. Not only that, but one who has the capacity to impact tight games in both boxes - it is no coincidence that Sunderland have dipped both in defending their own box and creating in the final third since he suffered a calf injury in the early exchanges of the defeat to Fulham. Dan Ballard and Enzo Le Fée are players of similar importance, whose absence would be keenly felt and whose replacements would need to deliver huge performances to give Sunderland a chance.
The odds will be against Sunderland when they step out at St James' Park, but that's not to say that a famous win is beyond them. Granit Xhaka and Brian Brobbey should be closer to full match fitness for their outings against Brighton, while the return of Reinildo will be huge given his experience and how effective he was against the same opposition in December. Sunderland have for understandable reasons on their return to the top flight been an unconvincing away side, but their good days have been often enough and recent enough to give them belief. Manage it, and it will trump even their victory at Stamford Bridge as the biggest feat of a memorable campaign to date.
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