Daniel Farke and Alan Shearer might disagree on the face of it when it comes to the number of points Leeds United need to survive in the Premier League – but they’re both right.
Leeds moved a step closer to safety after their 0-0 draw with Brentford, but Daniel Farke made it clear the job is not done. He told reporters the number of points he thinks Leeds need to win, to achieve safety.
“Now we have to win five to seven points,” and added that 40 points will definitely keep Leeds up. That is not an overstatement. It is a deliberate target designed to remove risk from the final seven games.
How many points do Leeds need now?
Farke reckons 5-7.
Leeds are still searching for consistency, and the margin for error remains narrow despite the recent point gained. While there is some frustration, that is two clean sheets in a row against Brentford and Palace.
Shearer reads the table and sees a lower threshold
Alan Shearer’s view is based on the current table rather than internal targets, and it leads him to a different number. Perhaps, a view that does not require safety first and carries the weight of Leeds fans.
The Premier League’s all-time top goalscorer told Match of the Day: “If you can’t win the game, then don’t get beaten” and added that “another four points will be enough”.
Alan Shearer on punditry duty as Newcastle take on Man United.
Photo by James Gill – Danehouse/Getty Images
Leeds are 15th on 33 points and sit four points clear of the drop zone, which supports that calculation. The table reflects a side that has created separation, even if performances have not always followed.
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The numbers show both arguments are valid
The difference between the two positions is smaller than it first appears. Four more points would take Leeds to 37, while Farke’s range of five to seven points would move them into the 38 to 40 bracket.
Those totals overlap in practical terms. One approach assumes efficiency, the other builds in margin. Both projections sit within a range that has historically been enough to secure survival.
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Leeds United players line up before a Premier League clash against Brighton
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But while Farke and Shearer disagree on the exact number of points, both clearly think that Leeds have enough to survive, especially with Leeds’ run of remaining Premier League fixtures somewhat favourable.
Fixtures explain why the gap in opinion exists
The remaining schedule helps explain why both views can exist at the same time. Leeds still have Wolves and Burnley to play at home, which are the two fixtures most likely to deliver the points Leeds need.
If Leeds take maximum points from those games, Shearer’s lower threshold becomes realistic. If they do not, Farke’s higher target becomes necessary.
The projections are different, but they rely on the same matches and the same opportunities.
There is no real disagreement here. Farke is setting a standard that protects against failure, while Shearer is reading a table that already gives Leeds an advantage.
Both views lead to the same conclusion. Leeds’ survival will be decided within a narrow points range that already reflects both arguments.
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