West Ham United head into the international break in the Premier League’s relegation zone but they are not down and out yet, as the Opta supercomputer would suggest following Tottenham’s latest defeat.
Indeed, West Ham United’s 2-0 defeat to Aston Villa was disappointing – although perhaps not quite as costly as it might have been.
That’s because bitter rivals Tottenham were thrashed by Nottingham Forest at the same time, meaning West Ham are only a point off Spurs in the Premier League table.
Optimist or Realist? Share your number and defend it in the comments
A graphic asking West Ham United fans how confident they are of Premie League survivial on a scale of 1-10.
Credit: Getty Images/James Gill – Danehouse
A win for Nuno Espirito Santo’s side on their Premier League return in mid-April would briefly see them move out of the relegation zone, at least until Spurs play two days later.
Here’s how the famed Opta supercomputer sees it.
West Ham have 58.75% chance of relegation while Tottenham have 23.33%
Their data suggests that West Ham have a 58.75% chance of getting relegated into the Championship at the end of the season.
The chances of Spurs getting relegated, however, are rapidly increasing. Opta gave them just a 14.9% chance of suffering the drop for the first time in modern history following a draw with Liverpool.
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Now, they are given a 23.33% chance of the drop.
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Let's here your views!
Nuno Espirito Santo, manager of West Ham United, looks on during the Premier League match between Aston Villa and West Ham United at Villa Park in Birmingham, United Kingdom, on March 22, 2026. Sweden's coach Graham Potter arrives on the pitch prior to the FIFA World Cup 2026 European qualification Group B football match between Sweden and Slovenia, in Solna on November 18, 2025.
While the north London side have a slight advantage right now, they have absolutely no momentum and are giving West Ham the chance to slip-up.
The numbers are now simple. Beat Wolves when the Premier League returns in April and West Ham will put Spurs into the bottom three.
West Ham have seven games left and they are not out of it just yet.
Ollie Watkins celebrates after scoring for Aston Villa against West Ham United.
Photo by Kevin Hodgson/MI News/NurPhoto via Getty Images
While Forest and Leeds appear to be pulling away, it’s a straight shootout between the Hammers and Spurs and surely few would back the latter right now.
The defeat to Villa underlined that West Ham are far from convincing themselves.
Still, they might just get lucky that they are set to go up against a team in absolute crisis during the run-in.
By the time the next match day in the Premier League is complete, the Opta supercomputer might be painting a prettier picture for the Irons.
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