Daniel Farke in the rain with Premier League logo
(Credit: Hasan Karim)
Jacob Raw
Tue 24 March 2026 7:40, UK
Leeds United have seen their chances of relegation gradually increase in March by what is now a total of 61.1 per cent amid Opta’s latest supercomputer prediction.
The Whites will be going into the international break with a slight bit of frustration that they weren’t able to grab all three points against Brentford on Saturday.
Daniel Farke’s side have drawn 0-0 in consecutive Premier League games, which has left them unable to capitalise on relegation rivals slipping up around them.
Leeds haven’t won a Premier League game since they beat Nottingham Forest 3-1 at the start of February, and some supporters may be starting to feel those nerves again.
Farke knows Leeds could get relegated if they don’t start to pick up results in the last seven games, as Opta’s prediction suggests the break has come at the right time.
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Supercomputer has gradually bumped Leeds’ relegation chances up
Leeds probably felt aggrieved against both Sunderland and Crystal Palace this month, with VAR and officiating decisions going against them.
The Whites find themselves in 15th place with seven games to go, but with just four points separating them and West Ham, who are in 18th, anything could happen.
Position Team Predicted points Relegation chances
15th Leeds 41.93 6.80%
16th Nottingham Forest 41.03 8.74%
17th Tottenham 38.47 27.10%
18th West Ham 37.00 57.48%
19th Burnley 26.17 99.89%
20th Wolves 24.96 99.94%
Opta’s current PL prediction
The Supercomputer predicted, as revealed on Wednesday, 4th March, that Leeds had a 4.22 per cent chance of relegation.
But as seen in the table above, Opta have revealed that the Whites have an increased relegation chance of 6.80 per cent of returning to the Championship.
Leeds have a favourable run-in
Credit: Breaking Media
That’s a 2.58 per cent jump from a couple of weeks ago and a gradual 61.1 per cent increase following the 1-0 defeat to Sunderland.
What has Daniel Farke said about relegation?
The Premier League has most definitely improved in quality since the last time the Whites were in it, which is utter madness considering it wasn’t even that long ago that they were relegated under Sam Allardyce.
Speaking in his pre-match press conference before the Brentford game, Farke revealed his thinking behind what keeps the Whites up.
Farke said: “Very often, 32 points are needed to stay in this league. But I think we need to win six more points. It could even be that we need one or two points more.
''Between six and eight points are needed''
Daniel Farke believes Leeds will prove they deserve to stay in the Premier League as he prepares Leeds for the visit of Brentford 🐝 pic.twitter.com/wZLZYYEc8l
— Sky Sports News (@SkySportsNews) March 19, 2026
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“Six to eight points are needed.”
So by that logic, Leeds may only need seven more points as a maximum now.