Aston Villa are fighting on two fronts to reach the Champions League next season - here's what it means to them
Unai Emery speaks with Morgan Rogers
Unai Emery speaks with Morgan Rogers
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Aston Villa are once again defying the Premier League’s financial gravity and challenging for a top four spot and a place in next season’s Champions League.
Indeed as things stand Unai Emery’s men could probably get away with finishing fifth to book a seat at European football’s top table in 2026/27.
Number crunchers Opta give them a 77.13 per cent chance of doing that albeit there are seven games remaining and they have slipped down from third, which they held for a long time, to fourth.
Thankfully Liverpool’s breath isn’t particularly close to the back of Villa’s neck and Chelsea are even further back in sixth and with a six point deficit to overhaul.
The 2-0 win at home to West Ham last time out steadied the nerves after they had started to jangle during successive losses to Wolves, Chelsea and Manchester United.
After all any anxiety is entirely understandable, Villa are playing not just for the prestige of being back in the Champions League but for access to an existential amount of money.
What’s at stake?
Money, lots of money.
As things stand the top five Premier League finishers are set to qualify for the Champions League. The Europa League kicks in at sixth spot – and the financial difference is stark.
This season Champions League clubs have access to a cashpot of €2.467bn. In the Europa League - and Villa are in the quarter finals - the prize-money pot is €565m.
In the Champions League group phase it’s €2.1m per win and €700k per draw, in the EL it’s €450k per win and €150k per draw.
Finishing bottom of the 36-team group phase is worth €275k, while the winners can expect roughly €9.9m. In the Europa it’s €2.7m for finishing top.
The knockout stages are where it gets really, really lucrative. In the Champions League it’s:
Knockout round play-offs: €1m per club
Round of 16: €11m per club
Quarter-finals: €12.5m per club
Semi-finals: €15m per club
Final: €18.5m per club
Winners can expect to receive an additional €6.5m.
The winner of the Europa League can expect to amass around €21.75m total.
Financial restraints
The financial regulations are changing in the Premier League this summer – to bring them in line with UEFA’s Squad Cost Ratio guidelines which limit clubs in European competition to spending 70% of their income. Bizarrely a club not in Europe would be able to go to 85% or above under the Premier League rules.
Anyway, Villa have already found themselves in hot water with UEFA's football earnings rule and squad cost rule and were fined £9.5m last summer for breaching what was then an 80% limit, which has subequently been lowered even further.
However much the goalposts move, one thing remains true – revenue is king and one way of increasing revenue is by selling players.
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Saleable assets
There will be plenty of interest in Morgan Rogers this summer and there is little doubt a Jack Grealish-sized £100m would go a long way to helping boost revenue. Whilst it goes against everything team-building should be about, finding a rough diamond in a lower league, polishing and building an environment to shine, Rogers is undeniably Villa’s biggest asset.
Ezri Konsa is probably the next most valuable, at 28 coming into his prime as a centre back. As free signings Boubacar Kamara and Youri Tielemans are probably the next biggest profit-generating players. Ollie Watkins, a 30-year-old striker with two seasons left on his contract might also be attractive in the market.
It stinks but they’ve been forced to go down this road before, with Douglas Luiz, Jhon Duran and Jacob Ramsey.
Academy candidates
The last of these players is the one that stings most. Ramsey came through the academy and goes down on the balance-sheet as ‘pure profit’, a dehumansing term that cares little for the niceties of a home-grown local player coming through the system to play for the first team. Villa banked a reported £40million when he moved to Newcastle last summer.
The only similar current scenario is Lamare Bogarde who came to Villa as a 16-year-old in 2020 and while he remains a work in progress, he has made 36 appearances this season and earned Emery’s praise for his development.
Further back in the first team pecking order Louie Barry’s potential is vast and while he has not yet recovered from injury, Stockport are hoping he can contribute something in the final few weeks of his third loan at the club. Barry signed a new contract with Villa in January 2025.
Higher earners
The other side of the scale is outgoings, while clubs don’t get punished for losses in the way they did under Profitability & Sustainability and the £105m over three year-limit, they do still need to be mindful of the balance between incomings and outcomings and not exceeding the new 70% limit.
Obviously the biggest liability is player salaries and Villa could trim their wage bill to fall in line with UEFA.
While player wages are not in the public domain, the likes of Emi Martinez and Watkins are likely to be higher earners, Villa also need to be mindful of what they are paying to loan players, Jadon Sancho this season and Marcus Rashford and Marco Asensio last. Wages offered to new arrivals will also need to be controlled whether Villa reach the Champions League or have to settle for the Europa.
Will Villa make it? Let us know