With a four-point gap to the bottom three, Leeds United are on course for survival, but may need a kick up the rear to get over the line with more comfort.
Daniel Farke will be using this international break as a means to reset his Leeds squad and address any of the lingering issues present in how we’re playing.
A four-point gap to the bottom three gives him plenty of reason to be optimistic. However, there’s also concern from the fanbase that our lead might slip away if he doesn’t address key weaknesses.
Leeds United need to start scoring more goals to make sure of Premier League survival under Daniel Farke
I think we’re all in agreement on what ought to change if we want to make life easier in the final seven league games.
We haven’t scored an open play goal in the Premier League since our draw at Chelsea in mid-February. Even that came by virtue of a howling defensive mix-up.
Fixture Leeds United’s open play xG
Manchester City (H) 1.39
Sunderland (H) 0.51
Crystal Palace (A) 0.11
Brentford (H) 0.32
Since spurning early big chances at home to Man City, Leeds haven’t created much at all in open play. Of course, we had to spend 45 minutes against Palace with 10 men, forced to settle for a good point in the end.
That said, it’s a clear area of weakness for Leeds right now. We’ve not created nearly enough chances to ‘deserve’ to win games against Sunderland, Palace, and Brentford.
Obvious solution mapped out for Leeds United to start creating more chances for Dominic Calvert-Lewin
Of course, it’s naive not to acknowledge Leeds’ reliance on set-pieces this season. But, looking at what we create from open play, we might need a couple of changes to get the best out of Dominic Calvert-Lewin.
How we do that is difficult, because taking more risks in the starting lineup means sacrificing some of the defensive solidity we’ve enjoyed of late.
Comparing our attacking threat from our last league win vs Nottingham Forest, to the draw vs Brentford, you get a bleak contrast in terms of effectiveness:
vs Nottingham Forest (3-1W) Leeds United’s attacking threat vs Brentford (0-0)
398 Passes completed 369
72 Passes in final third 111
41% (7/17) Cross success 16% (5/32)
30 Touches in opp. box 33
69% (11/16) Dribble success 42% (5/12)
The return of Noah Okafor could be massive. The Swiss winger’s pace and direct threat from out wide has been sorely missed in the past month, taking some of the burden away from Calvert-Lewin being the sole outlet in the final third. Add to that Gabriel Gudmundsson’s return from suspension and you finally have a left side that can both beat their men consistently.
Elsewhere, I do wonder if there’s scope for Farke to have a three-man midfield that includes Ao Tanaka.
Two of Leeds’ standout midfield performances this season have come with the Japan midfielder partnering Ethan Ampadu and Anton Stach. At home to Everton and Chelsea, we completely dominated both games in the middle of the park.
I don’t think it’s particularly wise to completely forgo our resilience without the ball in search of more creativity. However, it might not be that big a change needed to get us scoring again.
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