A look at how many points Leeds United need to guarantee Premier League survival amid their battle with West Ham, Nottingham Forest and Tottenham.
Leeds United are in FA Cup action at West Ham this weekend but despite the excitement of a possible trip to Wembley, Premier League survival remains the priority.
Daniel Farke’s side will have had a three-week break from the relegation scrap when they travel to Manchester United on Monday, April 13, having drawn 0-0 at home to Brentford last time out. That was their sixth league game without a win but four draws have kept things ticking along.
As things stand, Leeds are three places and four points above West Ham United in 18th, with Tottenham Hotspur and Nottingham Forest between the pair. There are just seven games remaining for Farke’s side to keep themselves above the drop zone and the opportunity to pick up points is reducing.
Leeds still have 21 points to play for and in the very unlikely event they win all seven games, a 54-point tally would see them climb up the table and towards Europe. That is almost certainly not going to happen - but nor does it need to.
Given Leeds’ goal difference of -11 is significantly better than West Ham’s -21, it’s realistic they will finish above the Hammers if both finish level on points come May. Should Nuno Espirito Santo’s side somehow win seven games to claim 21 points, the Whites would need 17.
But there is an added layer with Leeds due at the London Stadium on the final day of the season, with an away win limiting West Ham to an absolute maximum of 18 points for the remainder of the season. In that instance, Farke’s side would need to pick up 14 points, 11 of which would need to come before that final-day win.
How many points Opta think Leeds United need to survive
Neither Leeds nor West Ham are expected to pick up anywhere close to those numbers of points between now and May, of course. And there are also eyes on the two other teams between the Whites and relegation, with Nottingham Forest and Tottenham also struggling.
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Realistically, the number of points needed to secure safety will be much lower. In essence, Leeds will be safe if they can match West Ham’s points tally in the six games before they face off in May, while dropping one point would also virtually do it due to that superior goal difference.
In their latest predicted Premier League table, Opta expect West Ham to finish the campaign on 37 points. Leeds are already on 33 and so if those predictions are accurate, as few as four more points could keep them in the top-flight on goal difference - albeit no one will want it to be so tight.
Farke and his squad will no doubt be desperate to hit the magic 40-point mark before their final-day trip to West Ham, but will be happy with anything that leaves them three clear of the drop with a superior goal difference come kick-off. For what it’s worth, Opta have predicted Leeds finish the season on 42 points, leaving them three places and five points above the drop.
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