Man Utd's chances of signing Newcastle midfielder Sandro Tonali have increased due to the events of the last week.
Tonali will not play for Italy at the World Cup.(Image: 2026 UEFA)
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Italy's defeat to Bosnia and Herzegovina means they have failed to qualify for a third World Cup in a row. Their last game at the tournament was when Luis Suarez bit Giorgio Chiellini’s shoulder.
You may wonder why Italy's pain is relevant to Manchester United. Well, the answer is that United are interested in signing Italy's best player, Sandro Tonali, in the summer transfer window.
Tonali's agent had suggested his client's future would be decided after the tournament, saying: "Everyone is waiting for the World Cup, and then a thousand situations arise, but everything starts after."
Now that Tonali will not play at the World Cup, there is no need to delay the decision on his future until after the tournament. Italy lost to Bosnia and Herzegovina on penalties, which confirmed their fate, and Tonali was the only Italian player to score from the spot during the shootout.
An [interview with Giuseppe Riso](http://Calcio Finanza), Tonali's agent, made headlines in the north east last month because he all but admitted that his client was on the market. It wasn't what Newcastle fans wanted to hear.
And while Riso said a decision would come after the World Cup, he conceded: "The transfer market essentially starts when the tournament ends. Clearly, you start setting up many negotiations now."
Tonali opened the scoring against Northern Ireland in Italy's first qualifier during the international break, and he performed again in the crunch fixture against Bosnia and Herzegovina, but his teammates let him down.
Tonali was the only Italian to score a penalty.
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There has been a similar situation with Tonali at Newcastle this season. The Magpies have slipped to 12th in the Premier League and face the prospect of missing out on European football altogether.
Before the international break, Tonali was pictured watching from the stands at St. James' Park as Newcastle were beaten by Sunderland, a result that cranked up the pressure on manager Eddie Howe.
The Saudi-backed Newcastle project is treading water for the first time. Newcastle are braced for offers for their best players, with their financial numbers, released this week, confirming what their rivals suspected: they will have to sell to buy.
United's chances of signing Tonali and bringing him in early in the summer transfer window have increased due to Newcastle's financial situation and Italy's failure to qualify for the World Cup.
Last summer, United moved quickly to sign both Matheus Cunha and Bryan Mbeumo. On June 1, United announced an agreement to pay Cunha's release clause, and a few days later, the first Mbeumo bid was submitted.
Mbeumo was signed a month later because Brentford dragged out negotiations, but United showed intent from the earliest opportunity. There will be a chance to do the same with Tonali this summer, and Newcastle should be a tad more amenable than Brentford.
Tonali battles against Barcelona.
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There is an acceptance in Newcastle that a big sale will be necessary to comply with the Sustainability Rules (PSR), and the club would rather lose Tonali in the summer than their captain, Bruno Guimaraes.
Tonali is contracted until the summer of 2029, with the option of an additional year. Newcastle are thought to value him in the region of £100million, but their financial results suggest a lower fee could be agreed.
The Manchester Evening News reported last month that Tonali was on a midfield shortlist at Old Trafford, along with Elliot Anderson, Carlos Baleba and Adam Wharton. Anderson is greatly admired by United, but Manchester City seem in pole position to sign the Nottingham Forest midfielder.
That means United could turn to Tonali as their priority target if they miss out on Anderson, although his suitability for the position alongside Kobbie Mainoo. Howe has repurposed Tonali as a No.6. The Italian has an engine, but his form has dipped for Newcastle, which has contributed to fans being matter of fact about his potential exit.
United would have to complete due diligence on Tonali, who was banned from football for 10 months shortly after his arrival at Newcastle over breaches of rules on betting on matches in Italy. His agent said he has "completely changed" and described him as the Italian footballer "with one of the highest values in the world."
Everything would have to be right for United to invest heavily, but the Newcastle midfielder ticks more boxes than most in a difficult market to manoeuvre.