Sunderland were within three points of seventh with seven games of the Premier League campaign left
As part of our On The Whistle video feature, Phil asked fans last week for talking points they'd like to see discussed with the club currently in a prolonged break from fixtures.
The video Q&A is now available on our YouTube page, while Phil will also be producing more detailed written accompaniments in a series here on the Sunderland Echo website. In this edition he answers a question asked by many supporters: What would qualifying for Europe this season mean and would it come with risks for the club?
It is quite remarkable that ahead of the final seven fixtures of the Premier League campaign, we can genuinely have a conversation about what European football would mean for Sunderland. Sure, it's unlikely given the number of teams they'd have to fight their way past but it's far from an impossibility. Their win over Newcastle United took them to within three points of Brentford in seventh, and means it is all to play before between now and the end of the campaign. Sunderland will also be bolstered by the fact that Régis Le Bris should be able to welcome a number of key players back from injury after the current break - so there is much to be excited about.
While the prospect of a first European campaign is a source of excitement for fans, there is also an element of concern. Regular Thursday night fixtures can put a significant strain on squads, something underlined by Newcastle's struggles in both derby fixtures off the back of their Champions League commitments this season. Nottingham Forest remain mired in a relegation battle as they progress in the Europa League, and we have seen this season that Sunderland's squad depth is not the biggest to begin with.
European football also now brings major financial challenges and this is worth bearing in mind when it comes to Sunderland. While the new financial rules coming into the Premier League this summer limit clubs to spending 85% of their revenues on first-team costs, for clubs competing in Europe this drops to 70% in line with UEFA's own rules. Sunderland, then, would face having to try and expand their squad for the added demands of European football while essentially facing a real-time budget cut.
A place in the Conference League would be lucrative, but not a game changer on the balance sheet. Clubs who made it to the league stage this season banked £2.8 million in prize money, with a further £349,000 earned for each win. Add TV revenues and the boost from extra game at the Stadium of Light, and you can see why Europe would be good business for Sunderland and an extended run would likely bank in excess of £10 million. That would be a very welcome boost to their revenues and for Florent Ghisolfi it would not fundamentally offset the challenges he would face in line with the new rules this summer.
It's important to point out that European commitments do not always lead to struggle for Premier League clubs. Would Nottingham Forest have been in a relegation battle if they had not endured a torrid off-season which led to popular boss Nuno departing just games into the season? Or if they had then made a major misstep in appointing Ange Postecoglou, who struggled for points and later admitted he should never have taken the job? When West Ham United won the Conference League, they finished 14th. Both were better established at Premier League level than Sunderland are currently, but underlines that more games doesn't necessarily equal a doomsday scenario. Without the strain that the Africa Cup of Nations put on their squad this season, Sunderland might also hope to avoid so many persistent injury and fatigue issues.
European football would present challenges, then, and would unquestionably impact the club's Premier League form. If they just miss out, it wouldn't be a terrible outcome. Getting there is also an opportunity that doesn't come round often, would represent another huge morale boost to the city and would offer another perfect showcase for the club's development. Particularly at a time when driving up revenues is so important, the potential commercial boost of raising the club’s profile further could prove to be priceless. You simply have to embrace it and go for it - that's the whole point, isn't it?
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