Sunderland could still qualify for Europe this season - but the Premier League permutations are far from straightforward
Sunderland head into the final seven games of the Premier League season sitting 11th on 43 points - but thanks to a unique set of circumstances, they are still in the race for Europe.
Here’s a simple breakdown of how it works - and what it means...
Why this season is different
The Premier League is set to receive five Champions League places through UEFA’s coefficient rankings, rewarding the strong performances of English clubs in Europe. That change alone has pushed everything further down the table. As it stands, the top five will qualify for the Champions League, with sixth taking a Europa League place and seventh currently in line for the Europa Conference League.
The cup competitions and knock-on effects
Ordinarily, that would be the end of the story. But the cup competitions - both domestic and European - have created a series of knock-on effects that could extend those places further. Manchester City have already won the Carabao Cup, which carries a Conference League place. However, they are overwhelmingly likely to qualify for the Champions League through their league position, meaning that spot will be passed down the table.
The FA Cup is also key. If Manchester City or Chelsea win the competition and finish in the top six, their Europa League place will also be carried over into the league. If, however, the FA Cup is won by a team outside the European places – Leeds United or Southampton – that route closes immediately.
There are further complications in Europe. If Liverpool were to win the Champions League and finish in the top five, nothing changes. But if Arne Slot's side wins it and finishes outside the top five, they are added into the European places, pushing everything further down the table.
Aston Villa winning the Europa League while finishing outside the top five would increase the number of English teams in the Champions League to seven if Liverpool won the Champions League. Similarly, if Crystal Palace were to win the Conference League and finish outside of a Europa League spot, their place would be passed down.
What it means for Sunderland
Put all of that together, and there is a clear scenario where the European places extend beyond the usual positions. In the most likely outcome, the top seven or eight in the Premier League would qualify for Europe. That alone brings Sunderland firmly into the picture, given how tight the table is, with just seven points separating 5th from 13th.
There are more extreme scenarios where results across multiple competitions align. In those circumstances, the number of qualifying places could stretch even further, potentially bringing 9th or 10th into contention. In the most unlikely of combinations, 11th could come into the conversation, but it would require a near-perfect storm of results.
Liverpool and Aston Villa would both need to win their respective European competitions and finish outside the Premier League’s top five, while Crystal Palace would have to win the Conference League and finish outside the top six. That combination would push the total to 11 English sides in Europe - seven in the Champions League, three in the Europa League and one in the Conference League. It is possible on paper, but highly unlikely in reality.
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