At the turn of the year, West Ham’s Premier League survival chances looked impossible.
A 3-0 thrashing at the hands of basement club Wolves and then a 2-1 home defeat to Nottingham Forest left Nuno Espirito Santo’s side seven points adrift of safety. Everyone had written the Hammers off as dead certs for a return to the Championship.
Since then, though, West Ham have picked up 18 points and now sit clear of the bottom three by two points.
London rivals Tottenham, though, are in free fall. Without a Premier League win in 2026, Spurs’ 1-0 loss to Sunderland over the weekend, following West Ham’s 4-0 win over Wolves at London Stadium on Friday night, means they’re rooted in the bottom three with just six games left to play.
For weeks now, given Spurs’ tragic form, many have been fantasising over a scenario which sees West Ham survive at the expense of Spurs come the end of the season. That said, for a while it remained just a fantasy, especially after Tottenham parted ways with Igor Tudor and appointed Roberto De Zerbi.
But now it’s looking more and more like a real possibility, especially when you factor in their remaining fixtures. They still have to play Wolves and Leeds, while fixtures against Brighton, Aston Villa and Chelsea all pose significantly difficult tests. They face Everton at home – where they haven’t in the league since the beginning of December – on the final day of the season.
And Opta’s supercomputer has now followed suit in that thinking, placing them as favourites for the drop behind West Ham.
They now give Tottenham a 46.5% chance of being relegated, while West Ham’s chances have been boosted to a little over 36%.
Somewhat surprisingly, both Leeds and Nottingham Forest both have less than a 10% chance of going down, despite both only being three points above the drop zone.
But with Spurs now favourites to slip into the Championship for the first time in the Premier League era, that’ll give West Ham fans a lot of joy heading into the final weeks of the season.
It’d be incredible if the forecasts became reality, wouldn’t it?