Look ahead to Wednesday’s UEFA Champions League clash at the Allianz Arena with our Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid prediction and preview, as two European heavyweights battle it out for a semi-final place.
Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid: Key Stats
Leading 2-1 from the first leg, Bayern are the favourites to win on Wednesday, with Opta’s supercomputer handing them a 56.9% chance of victory over Real Madrid.
Harry Kane has scored in his last four Champions League games (six goals), and could equal the longest scoring streak by an English player in the competition.
Real Madrid are unbeaten in their last four away games against Bayern Munich (W3 D1).
Bayern Munich are probably the best team in Europe this season. They are certainly one of the most entertaining.
They have already plundered 105 Bundesliga goals, smashing the record for the number of goals in a single campaign in the competition with plenty of games to spare.
Vincent Kompany has now overseen 101 games at the helm, and in that time, Bayern have scored more goals (307) and registered a higher expected goals (267.8) than any other team in Europe’s top five leagues across all competitions. Only Barcelona (82) and Real Madrid (78) can boast more wins than Bayern’s 77.
Last week, Bayern turned in a statement performance at the Bernabéu, where they came away as 2-1 victors. However, Kylian Mbappé’s strike has given Madrid something to build on in Wednesday’s second leg, as these two giants of European football battle it out for a place in the UEFA Champions League semi-finals.
Both teams had 20 shots apiece in what was a high-octane thriller, but Bayern’s quality just told in the end, with Luis Díaz and Harry Kane giving them the advantage in the tie.
Real Madrid 1-2 Bayern Munich momentum
And now, back on home turf, the Bundesliga champions-elect will be looking to get the job done, with a treble well on the cards for them.
Byern’s victory at the Bernabéu was 23rd time they won away from home in the first leg of a two-legged knockout stage tie in the European Cup/Champions League – they have only been eliminated in one of the previous 22, suffering an away goals defeat to Inter in the 2010-11 round of 16 (won 1-0 away, lost 3-2 at home).
any way back for Madrid?
Since winning the trophy back in 2020, Bayern have only progressed beyond the quarter-finals once, doing so in 2023-24, so while many onlookers are considering them favourites for the title, there is still a major hurdle for them to navigate.
And that is without considering it is the record European champions Madrid that they are going up against.
Madrid have the most semi-final appearances in European Cup/UEFA Champions League history (33).
If they are eliminated here, however, they will have failed to reach the semi-finals as many times in the last two seasons (two) as they did in the previous 14 editions combined, between 2010-11 and 2023-24 (two).
And while Bayern come into this contest on the back of a huge win over St. Pauli, Madrid could only draw 1-1 with Girona in their last La Liga outing, leaving their title hopes fading fast.
Indeed, given the nine-point advantage Barça hold in La Liga, the Champions League is realistically Madrid’s last hope of silverware this season, so the pressure is on.
If Los Blancos are to make it through, then Mbappé and Vinícius Júnior will likely be crucial.
Nine of Mbappé’s 14 goals in the Champions League this season have been scored away from home. Should he find the net in this game, the Madrid forward would be the first player ever to score 10+ away goals in a single European Cup/Champions League edition.
Mbappé is just three goals away from equalling Cristiano Ronaldo’s record for the most scored in a single Champions League campaign (17, set in 2013-14). Robert Lewandowski (15 in 2019-20), and Karim Benzema (15 in 2021-22) are the only players other than Ronaldo to net 15+ in a single season.
Kylian Mbappe UCL goals and xG 2025-26
Three more goals would also see him move above Madrid great Raúl, into the all-time top five for Champions League goals.
Vinícius, meanwhile, made 17 runs in behind the opposition defensive line in last week’s first leg; the most by a player against Bayern in the Champions League this season. The winger has made the most runs in behind in this edition overall (150), as well as in the knockout stages (76).
With 25 assists to his name in the Champions League, Vinícius requires only two more to match Ronaldo’s club-record tally of 27 in the competition for Madrid.
But Bayern, of course, have one of the most lethal attacks in world football.
It is spearheaded by Kane, who is enjoying a stellar season. Already on 49 goals in all competitions for his club this term, 10 more than any other player in Europe’s top five leagues (Mbappé ranks second on 39).
Kane has scored or assisted in four consecutive Champions League appearances against Madrid (two goals, two assists), the joint-longest run by a player against the Spanish side in the competition (also four by Giovane Élber in 2002 and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang in 2017).
The England captain has 30 goals in 35 Champions League appearances for Bayern Munich – the most of any player in the competition since the start of 2023-24.
It is not only Kane, of course.
Michael Olise has assisted six goals in the Champions League this season; the joint-most by a Bayern player in a single edition (also Leroy Sané in 2021-22 and Hasan Salihamidzic in 2001-02). The winger leads the way for assists in all competitions among players in Europe’s top five leagues this term, with 25.
Then there is Díaz, who has eight goal involvements in the Champions League this season (five goals, three assists), now the most by a Colombian in a single season in the competition.
That trio are ably supported by the likes of Joshua Kimmich, Serge Gnabry and Jamal Musiala, with Kompany having built a wonderfully gifted squad.
Indeed, the two players who have made the most defensive line-breaking passes in the Champions League this season are Bayern’s Kimmich (17) and Madrid’s Arda Güler (16). Eight of Kimmich’s 17 have been for Olise; the most from one player to a teammate in this edition.
Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid Head-to-Head
Bayern’s victory in the first leg ended a nine-game winless run for them against Madrid in the UEFA Champions League (D2 L7).
Only once before have they won both legs of a knockout stage tie against them in the European Cup/Champions League, doing so in the 2000-01 semi-finals (1-0 away, 2-1 at home).
Since the start of the 2013-14 season, Madrid (three) have the joint-most away wins against Bayern across all competitions, despite only playing there four times in this period (also three wins in 17 games for Borussia Dortmund and three wins in 13 games for Borussia Mönchengladbach).
Plus, Madrid are unbeaten in their last four away games against Bayern (W3 D1).
In the Bundesliga era (since 1963-64), only two sides have managed to go five in a row without losing away to Bayern: Werder Bremen (five from 1989-1992 and 2007-2010) and 1. FC Köln (5 from 2003-2010).
Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid Prediction
Bayern’s recent record against Madrid may not be fantastic, but Opta’s supercomputer is fancying them to get the job done.
Kompany’s team come out on top in 56.9% of the model’s data-led sims, with Madrid winning 22.8% of the time. There is a 20.3% chance of a draw.
Bayern are handed an 83.7% chance of progressing from the tie, and they have a 30.2% likelihood of going all the way and winning the trophy.
Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid Prediction Opta
Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid Predicted Lineups
Bayern Munich: Manuel Neuer, Konrad Laimer, Jonathan Tah, Dayot Upamecano, Josip Stanisic, Aleksandar Pavlovic, Joshua Kimmich, Luis Díaz, Serge Gnabry, Michael Olise, Harry Kane
Head coach: Vincent Kompany
Real Madrid: Andriy Lunin, Álvaro Carreras, Dean Huijsen, Antonio Rüdiger, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Arda Güler, Aurélien Tchouaméni, Jude Bellingham, Federico Valverde, Vinícius Júnior, Kylian Mbappé.
Head coach: Álvaro Arbeloa
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 10,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Wednesday night, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
UEFA Champions League Stats Opta
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