During the international break, the question hanging over Leeds United was a uncomfortable one: were Daniel Farke's side sleepwalking towards safety or towards disaster? After a weekend of twists, drama and one of the most remarkable results of the season, that question has hopefully been answered.
The weekend began in the worst possible way for Leeds supporters. Friday night saw West Ham dismantle bottom club Wolves 4-0, moving out of the relegation zone and threatening to drag the bottom of the table even tighter. All the progress of recent weeks, the carefully maintained cushion, suddenly felt very fragile. It was exactly the kind of result that turns a week celebrating reaching an FA Cup semi-final into a genuinely sleepless weekend.
Sunday brought partial relief. Forest, who had climbed above Spurs the previous week with that brilliant 3-0 win, could only draw 1-1 at home to Aston Villa, dropping two valuable points. But the real gift came from Sunderland, who beat a Spurs side that simply cannot stop their own collapse, sending Roberto De Zerbi’s (is he their manager this week?) men into the relegation zone. Three wins from their last fifteen games and no new manager bounce tells the story of a club in freefall.
Then came Monday night, and everything changed. Leeds travelled to Old Trafford, a ground where they had not won a league game since 1981, against a Manchester United side that Michael Carrick had revived into genuine Champions League qualification contenders. Every neutral expected a defeat that would drag Leeds back into the mire, Spurs fans would have been praying, especially with West Ham's win earlier in the weekend potentially reducing the gap to just one point by full time. Instead, Noah Okafor produced one of the moments of the season.
Two first-half goals from the Swiss forward, the first a composed finish in the fifth minute after Calvert-Lewin caused aerial chaos in the box, the second a volley just before the half hour after more penalty area chaos gave Leeds a commanding lead. Lisandro Martínez was sent off for violent conduct after VAR spotted him pulling Calvert-Lewin's hair, Casemiro pulled one back with a header, but Karl Darlow, James Justin and Calvert Lewin himself all provide goal saving heroics to hold out for a famous 2-1 victory. Their first league win at Old Trafford in 45 years. The sleepwalk is emphatically over.
The result changes the complexion of our survival bid significantly. Leeds still sit 15th but now with 36 points, six clear of Spurs who have tumbled into 18th on 30 points, and four ahead of West Ham in 17th on 32. Forest occupy 16th with 33 points, leaving all three chasing teams within three points of each other with six games to play. When we first started looking at Opta’s predicted table, the analysts gave Leeds a 6.45% chance of relegation. That figure has now fallen to just 1.61%. More dramatically, Spurs' relegation probability has surged to 49.50%, meaning they are now almost as likely as not to be playing Championship football next season. West Ham for the first time in a while are not the favourite of the four clubs to go down on 38.78%, while Forest have crept up to 10.11%.
Opta's predicted final table makes for fascinating reading compared to where we started. Just a month ago, they had Leeds finishing 15th on 42 points, with West Ham taking the final relegation spot. The revised projection now has Leeds on a predicted 44 points, safe with room to spare, but crucially has Spurs dropping into the relegation places on 37 expected points, with West Ham on 38 just surviving. Forest, on 41 points, are predicted to edge clear. That would represent one of the great collapses in Premier League history from Spurs, a club that were third at the end of October.
Daniel Farke answered the question emphatically with his team selection and the way his players went about their business on Monday night, there was no sleepwalking here. An attacking line up and mentality saw Noah Okafor providing the kind of support to Dominic Calvert-Lewin he has been crying out for. We’ve spoken about his isolation, his drought, the absence of width and the lack of support but at Old Trafford, Okafor provided the link play and the movement that had been missing, feeding off Calvert-Lewin's physical presence rather than requiring the conventional service the striker thrives on. It’s the kind of attitude we need to take into the remaining games.
Six games remain: Wolves, Bournemouth, Burnley, Spurs, Brighton and the notorious final day trip to West Ham. When we first flagged that London Stadium finale as one to avoid mattering, it felt like a distant concern. It is now tantalisingly close to being irrelevant. Opta give Wolves and Burnley a 100% chance of relegation, those are six points Leeds should be targeting with real confidence. Add victories in those two games to Monday's win and Leeds would be on 42 points with three games to spare. The nightmare scenario of arriving at West Ham needing a result dissolves entirely.
There is still work to do. There will still be wobbles. This is Leeds United, after all. But for the first time since that February win over Forest that now feels like a lifetime ago, the momentum is firmly with Farke's men. One famous night in Manchester has, potentially, changed everything.