Zan Vipotnik has been one of the stars of the Championship this season and his efforts have caught the attention of Everton – but there’s a stat that suggests he could actually be a risk.
Everton will likely be in the market for a new centre-forward this summer.
Both Beto and Thierno Barry have come in for criticism this season, and while both are capable of going on goalscoring runs, the feeling is that the Toffees still need to strengthen.
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This season, Vipotnik has plundered 21 goals in the Championship for Swansea City.
He is on course to win the Golden Boot and naturally, there are now lots of eyes on him heading into the summer – including from Everton.
However, as brilliant has he’s been, there is something to suggest that Everton need to think twice about a pursuit.
Everton target Zan Vipotnik has massively over-performed his xG this season
Vipotnik has certainly impressed with his finishing this season for Swansea.
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With the Swans scoring 50 in the league, Vipotnik’s haul accounts for almost half of their total, highlighting just how important he’s been.
And BBC Sport ran a feature on Vipotnik earlier this week which assessed his performance this term.
They actually talk within the piece about how he is ‘outperforming’ Harry Kane – arguably the best player in world football right now – at the moment in terms of xG.
Zan Vipotnik playing for Swansea City.
Photo by Athena Pictures/Getty Images
Vipotnik’s is 9.39 whereas Kane’s is 6.66.
This is actually the second-highest overperformance of xG of players in Europe’s top five leagues and the EFL, behind Wrexham striker Jack Marriott (9.46).
As amazing as he has done to score the goals he has, this does suggest that Vipotnik would be a risky signing by Everton if they did go after him.
Why Vipotnik would be a risky signing by Everton
Vipotnik has essentially scored at least nine more goals than statistics would suggest.
So there is an argument to say that it could be tough for the Slovenian to sustain this kind of performance moving forward.
And of course, if Everton did move for Vipotnik, he would be moving up a division.
The Premier League can be a tough place to score goals, so Everton need to determine if he could make the step up successfully.
This is not to say that he shouldn’t be signed. Vipotnik does have qualities that could make him a success in the Premier League.
It’s more about the kind of money Everton would pay. The club shouldn’t really be forking out too much based on this xG data and the potential not to replicate what he’s done this term.
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