A win for Leeds at Elland Road this weekend could effectively seal Wolves fate. But the team that arrives on Saturday is far more dangerous than their league position suggests.
Leeds United fans are flying high after Monday night's 2-1 victory at Old Trafford, the first time the Whites have won there in the league since Brian Flynn's goal on 27 February 1981. It’s a result that changes how the relegation battle is framed. Noah Okafor's brace in the first half, Lisandro Martínez's red card for pulling Dominic Calvert-Lewin's hair, and then a tense, nerve-shredding second half as United tried to claw their way back: it had everything. Daniel Farke described it afterwards as "an excellent night for everyone who is connected with Leeds United" and "a massive, massive step forward." It is hard to argue.
Now comes Saturday. Wolves at home. And if Leeds win, the maths become very bleak, very quickly for Rob Edwards' side. Wolves sit bottom on 17 points with a goal difference of -34. A Leeds victory on Saturday effectively relegates them, the gap in goal difference alone would make any recovery all but impossible with just five games remaining. If Leeds win and West Ham pick up at Crystal Palace on Monday, relegation is confirmed Wolves. But Daniel Farke himself offered the clearest possible warning against complacency.
On Premier League level, the momentum can change pretty, pretty quickly. We have to stay on it. We want to keep going.
These are not the words of a manager who plans to take his foot off the pedal, and nor should his players. Because here is what the league table does not tell you about Wolves. In the six league games before last Friday's 4-0 defeat at West Ham, Rob Edwards' side had lost just once. In that run they beat Liverpool 2-1 at Molineux in early March and then followed that up days later with a 2-0 victory over Aston Villa at home. Their form is better than both Chelsea and Villa, Wolves are not the rabble their position implies.
There is also the small matter of Leeds' injury situation. Farke confirmed before the Old Trafford game that Anton Stach and Joe Rodon are both unlikely to feature again in April. Daniel James was also absent. Bijol, Okafor and Gudmundsson were all doubts going into Monday, and while all three played on Monday they will have to be managed carefully, the squad arriving at Elland Road on Saturday will not be at full strength. Against a Wolves side with nothing left to lose and playing for pride, it’s a game that demands focus, not assumption.
For much of this season Leeds have been fighting for survival, grinding out hard fought draws. Now they are in a position to not only secure their own fate this weekend, but consign another club to theirs. Dominic Calvert-Lewin put it best after the final whistle at Old Trafford: "Until we are mathematically safe in the Premier League, we have not done our job." That clarity of purpose is exactly what Saturday requires. With the FA Cup semi-final against Chelsea at Wembley just eight days later, it would be all too easy to let the mind wander, but Leeds can’t let it. A victory on Saturday lifts the pressure heading to Wembley and the chance at an FA Cup final.