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FPL GW33 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis and Matchups

Welcome to our FPL GW33 Scout Picks blog! This weekend is a Double gameweek for six premier league teams (Man City, Burnley, Chelsea, Brighton, Leeds and Bournemouth), so this list will obviously include a lot of players from those teams… Our Scout Picks team this week can also be used as a Free Hit template for those of you looking to play that chip this weekend…

Our Scout Picks team’s total of 60 wasn’t enough to beat the Official Scout Picks score of 67 in FPL GW30. We go into FPL GW33 level on points…

AAFPL Scout Picks 16 – 16 Official Scout Picks

GW1 GW2 GW3 GW4 GW5 GW6 GW7 GW8 GW9 GW10 GW11 GW12 GW13 GW14 GW15 GW16 GW17 GW18 GW19 GW20 GW21 GW22 GW23 GW24 GW25 GW26 GW27 GW28 GW29 GW30 GW31 GW32

AAFPL Team 62 58 57 68 34 60 77 67 58 73 39 52 59 82 58 82 77 40 32 49 65 42 46 77 85 51 36 65 62 54 55 60

Official FPL Team 56 50 57 90 43 57 67 63 41 78 54 52 41 66 67 80 92 35 46 57 76 38 40 68 69 64 42 88 78 53 59 67

As always, our Scout Picks will be based on the eye test, stats, and analysis. But before we discuss player picks, let’s take a look at the fixtures for FPL GW33.

FPL GW33 Fixtures

Link to all our FPL DGW33 blogs, including free hit drafts, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

FPL GW33 Scout Picks

FPL GW33 Scout Picks – Goalkeeper

fpl gw33 scout picks goalkeeper

Darlow (3.9m) comes into the team for Leeds’ double GW fixtures against Wolves and Bournemouth. FPL managers are spoilt for choice in the goalkeeping department for FPL GW33 with the likes of Verbruggen, Donnarumma and Petrovic all looking like decent options. We’ve selected Darlow primarily for the very attractive home fixture against Wolves in the DGW, with the additional fixture against Bournemouth a bit of a free hit/bonus.

Leeds have consistently put up pretty good underlying defensive numbers all season and rank 8th overall for xGA at time of writing. Unfortunately, Farke’s side have been let down by some poor goalkeeping and are one of just 5 sides to have under performed when it comes to xGA. Wolves, their first opponent in FPL GW33, rank bottom for both xG and goals scored. Post-new-manager-bounce, their attacking numbers have dropped back down to their previously low levels (ranked bottom for xG since start of March). In 2 of their last 3 premier league games Wolves have failed to create an xG worth of chances, creating just 0.64 against Liverpool and 0.57 against West Ham. Leeds always play better at home (in theory), so the fixture taking place at Elland road is another plus.

After that, Leeds face a Bournemouth side that have recently beaten the might Arsenal! Leeds will offer a different challenge than arsenal did however, and in the game earlier this season Farke’s side limited a visiting Bournemouth to just 0.83xG over the course of the ninety. Regardless of their chances in this second game, the Wolves game is a great fixture, so having at least one Leeds defensive asset is a must for Double Gameweek 33.

Further Read:Upcoming FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks | 25/26 FPL Season

FPL GW33 Scout Picks – Defenders

fpl gw33 scout picks defenders

Hill (4.2m), Van Hecke (4.5m) and O’Reilly (5.0m) make up our backline for FPL GW33…

Hill comes back into the team for FPL GW33 with Bournemouth facing Newcastle and Leeds in this round of fixtures. As mentioned, we’re going big on double GW players, and even though Bournemouth’s fixtures individually aren’t great, two opportunities for points scoring is too good to turn down!

Bournemouth have an okay defensive record in recent games, conceding 1 against Arsenal, 2 against United and keeping consecutive clean sheets in the previous two against Burnley and Brentford. Arsenal only managed 0.18 open play xG against them, while United created just 0.91, meaning they were perhaps unlucky to concede 3 in those two matches. Hill is a consistent DEFCON scorer, picking up 10+ CBIT in 3 of his last 4 matches. The English defender has picked up Defcon points in almost two thirds of his starts this season (10 matches with DEFCON, 16 starts), a rate bettered only by Senesi in Bournemouth’s squad (Sensi who costs 1m more than Hill!).

Van Hecke comes into the team after his excellent showing in FPL GW32 in which he scored a decent 5 points (he was also noticeably the only Brighton defensive asset not to score bonus points…). This week Brighton face Tottenham and Chelsea in a DGW of two halves! Tottenham are not very good. They are bottom of the form table and are one of only two teams in Englands top 4 leagues to not have won a game since the start of 2026. Chelsea similarly, are going through somewhat of a poor patch, so although the fixtures look a bit iffy on paper, Brighton could well come away with 3 if not 6 points here!

brighton fpl

Brighton have conceded just 1 goal in their last three matches, limiting their opponents in all three games to less than 1xG worth of chances. Brighton actually have the 5th best xGA in the league and have conceded the fifth fewest goals!

Completing the defense is Manchester City’s O’Reilly, who keeps his spot in the team after a fantastic 14 point haul against Chelsea in FPL GW32. The english fullback is by far the most attacking defender in the game having produce 14 Shots, 4 Goals, 3 Clean sheets, 5 Big Chance Involvements 3 Double Digit Hauls, 52 FPL Points over his last 5 games.

City face an out-of-sorts Arsenal team before travelling to face Burnley away for the double GW. While Arsenal at home is by no means an easy fixture, the gunners have been short of creativity and of goals lately, so now is not a bad time to be facing them! Burnley, on the other hand, rank third from bottom for goals scored and 2nd from bottom for xG this season, making them a team to target defensively. Burnley also rank very low for defensive numbers which is something to keep an eye on due to O’Reilly’s immense attacking output.

*NOTE – we are still awaiting news on the extent of O’Reilly’s injury. If confirmed out, we may reconsider this spot prior to the deadline.

Further Read:Top FPL GW33 Differential Picks to Target Ahead of Deadline

FPL GW33 Scout Picks – Midfielders

fpl gw33 scout picks midfielders

In midfield we’ve gone for Tavernier (5.4m), Enzo (6.5m), Semenyo (8.2m) and Palmer (10.5m)…

Let’s start with the Chelsea double-up. The boys in blue rank very highly in a number of attacking stats in recent weeks, despite their run of poor goalscoring form and lack of points on the board. Enzo has provided just 1 assist in his last 3 premier league starts, but has put up pretty decent attacking numbers in those games. The argentine midfielder also offers the possibility of some defcon points. Although he has managed to score defcon in just 2 matches so far this season, he has put up a total of 211 CBIT, making him the third most prolific in the squad and by far the most prolific of any midfielder in the team. Speaking of defcon…

palmer fpl

Palmer picked up points for his defensive contributions in FPL GW32 to the surprise of many. The english midfielder is traditionally seen as more of an attacking option, but somehow managed to reach the threshold of 12+ CBIT in that game against Manchester City. Palmer’s underlying numbers don’t look bad at all, and he consistently puts up over 0.5xGI/90 but is often falling foul of bad luck or bad finishing from his teammates.

Had Chelsea had a single game in FPL GW33 then we likely wouldn’t have considered their assets, but as they do, we’re backing the underlying numbers and hoping for the best!

Chelsea Attack rank over the last 6 Gameweeks:

1st for xG

4th for Big Chances

6th for Shots inside the box

Semenyo keeps his spot in the team in spite of a second successive blank in FPL in GW32. Semenyo’s underlying numbers have really dropped off in recent weeks, a concerning fact for all FPL managers, but his position in the team remains the same which offers some hope that this is just a patch of poor form. Semenyo occupies an almost centre forward position for City, at times playing up alongside Haaland while the opposite winger either keeps the width or drops into midfield (depending on personnel). With a DGW against an Arsenal team that may well be lacking in confidence and a Burnley team that rank poorly in almost all defensive stats, Semenyo remains a great option for this round of fixtures.

Finally we have Tavernier. The Bournemouth winger has been putting in some amazing performances for Bournemouth in recent weeks, a fact backed up by some excellent underlying numbers, but has fallen at the final hurdle – converting that into goals and assists. Expected data suggests that Tavernier should have at least 2 more goals than he currently has, while he’s about where he should be with assists (currently 5 goals and 4 assists).

Tavernier has produced 2+ key passes and 2+ shots in 3 of his last 4 games in the league but come away empty handed with regards to goals and assists. Surely his fortunes have got to turn sooner or later! Bournemouth face a Newcastle side in free-fall before welcoming Leeds to the south coast in a decent set of DGW fixtures. The cherries are in great form and Tavernier has some excellent underlying numbers – he’s a great budget pick for FPL GW33.

Further Read:FPL GW33 Free Hit Guide – Tips, Players to Target and Best Drafts

FPL GW33 Scout Picks – Forwards

fpl gw33 scout picks forwards

For our FPL GW33 Scout Picks team we’ve selected a front three of Welbeck (6.2m), JP (7.7m) and Haaland (14.4m)…

Welbeck retains his spot in the team in spite of his blank in FPL GW32 as Brighton go to Tottenham and then welcome Chelsea in their DGW. With Brighton facing Spurs first in their DGW, it makes sense to try and get some attacking cover into the team and for us Welbeck is the best option. The englishman is averaging a goal every 160 minutes and is currently right on track with his xG. Scoring twice against Liverpool in FPL GW31, Welbeck then blanked against Burnley in FPL GW32, despite putting up almost exactly the same xG in both games (1.07 v 1.06).

This Brighton team creates a lot of chances at the moment, and Welbeck’s clever movement is key to that. He’s been a bit patchy this season, but his underlying numbers in recent games look excellent and with two fixtures this week (one of them against relegation candidates Spurs) it makes sense to bring him in!

JP comes back into the team following Chelsea’s loss to Man City in FPL GW32 as the Blues take on Manchester United and then Brighton in FPL GW33. Rosenier’s in a bit of hot water at the moment, and if he doesn’t get his act together soon, it may well be curtains! As pointed out in a previous section, Chelsea rank very highly for attacking stats in recent weeks, making them a team to target in this double. While both Brighton and United are in a bit of form currently, a double gameweek is a double gameweek… right?…

It’s only a few weeks on from JP’s huge 19 point haul against Villa in FPL GW29, and truly his 14 goals and 9 assists speak for themselves. Chelsea lost both of these reverse fixtures earlier in the season, which doesn’t bode well, so will surely be looking to take revenge this time around. JP has the ability to win games and though he has gone a bit quiet in the last 3-or-so, we’re backing him in this DGW.

Haaland takes the captaincy and completes the team for FPL GW33. The robot is a tried and tested points scorer and looks to be getting into a bit of form following a bit of a period of poor form. He managed around 0.6xG against Chelsea in FPL GW32, taking 4 shots, 1 on target, across the 90. In a double gameweek it feels like too much of a risk to go against Haaland, and in the absence of any other clear captaincy options, he takes the armband.

Further Read:FPL Gameweek 33 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold, & Sell

FPL GW33 Scout Picks Full Team

fpl gw33 scout picks

Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW33:

Upcoming FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks | 25/26 FPL Season

FPL GW33 Scout Selection- Top Picks for GW33 based on Stats, Analysis and MatchupsTop FPL GW33 Differential Picks to Target Ahead of Deadline

FPL GW33 Free Hit Guide- Best Drafts, Tips and Key NotesFPL Double Gameweek 33 Transfer Tips- Players to Buy/Hold/SellInterview with World Number 1 FPL Manager – Erik IbsenFPL DGW33 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More

Link to all our FPL DGW33 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 33 of the 2025/26 FPL Season?

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