The Houston Rockets have one of the strangest timelines in the NBA. Their best young pieces are still years away from their primes, while their biggest star is already deep into the final stage of his career.
Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson are both 23. Reed Sheppard is 21. Jabari Smith Jr. is 22. Tari Eason is 24. On the other side of the roster, Steven Adams and Fred VanVleet are 32, while Kevin Durant is 37.
That leaves Houston in a rare position. The Rockets have plenty of talent, but they do not have many core players who are actually in the middle of their prime.
Houston entered the season looking to build on last year’s success, when it finished second in the Western Conference before losing a seven-game first-round series. Instead, they finished fifth in the Western Conference and lost in the first-round again.
This came after Houston traded for Durant in the offseason. To be fair, the Rockets also lost VanVleet and Adams due to injury, but whenever a team adds a 37-year-old superstar, there are higher aspirations than a first-round loss.
That disappointing result, mixed with Houston’s unusual roster construction, begs a question: what timeline are the Rockets actually building on?
Should Houston trade draft assets to try to win while Durant is still able to be an elite scorer? Or should the Rockets hold onto their long-term assets and use Durant’s experience to help their young core gain valuable playoff experience while building on a longer timeline?
There is no telling how long Durant can stay elite
The most difficult part of this question is the unprecedented nature of Kevin Durant’s greatness. Outside of a handful of players, there is virtually no one who has been as effective in their age-37 season as Durant.
That is fantastic for Houston, but it also creates uncertainty. Can Durant keep up his historic production in his age-38 season? What about his age-39 season? If Durant were closer to his prime and the Rockets could confidently predict that he had two or three seasons of elite basketball left, this decision would become much easier.
That uncertainty is exactly why Houston has to be careful. Trading major draft capital or young players to maximize the next two seasons sounds tempting, but it also risks shortening a much wider championship window.
This young core has special upside
Alperen Sengun is a multiple-time All-Star, and Amen Thompson is already one of the best defensive players in the league. It is rare to have multiple players with that much potential under 25 years old.
Another thing those players now have is valuable playoff experience. Durant can help them, along with the rest of Houston’s youngsters, gain even more of it. That will help these players know what to expect when they are in their primes and truly ready to compete for a championship.
If everything goes right, the Rockets will be able to compete for a championship for the next decade with a team built around Sengun and Thompson. They should not sacrifice that to chase a title in the next two or three years for Durant.
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