After years of ‘bottling’ allegations, Arsenal might finally do it. They might win the league.
But it’s not just the Premier League standings they’re on top of.
Arsenal fans already pay more for a matchday pint than supporters at any other Premier League ground, and new analysis from UKSoccerShop suggests the gap is only going to widen.
The study applied the latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) alcohol inflation data to current matchday beer prices at all 20 Premier League grounds, projecting costs year on year through to 2035.
According to theFood and Drink at Football Grounds guide, a beer at theEmiratescurrently sets fans back£6.35, 55p more than the second-most expensive pint, at Fulham’s Craven Cottage.
With alcohol prices rising at roughly 3.6% a year according to the latest ONS figures, the study projects that the price of a pint at the North London stadium is on course to reach £7.32 by 2030 and£8.72 by the 2034/35 season.
A pint at the Emirates is projected to be nearly a pound more than the second-highest beer.
‘Eye-opener’, but how accurate?
With unease amongst many Premier League fanbases around ticket-price hikes and other increasing matchday expenses, Simon Pretswell, CEO of UKSoccerShop, called the numbers an eye-opener.
“Every fan knows what a pint costs at their ground, it is one of those things you just notice, and the direction these prices are heading in is pretty stark,” he said in a press release featuring the projection.
It’s a valiant effort by the football shirt retailer, but Colin Angus, Sheffield University’s Professor of Alcohol Policy, says a projection that far into the future is a bit like sticking a wet finger in the air to track the wind.
“Forecasting inflation is tricky anyway, and forecasting product-specific inflation is really, really hard. We know that you get a lot of variation,” he said.
And for beer, it gets even trickier.
“We’ve had high inflation over the last few years with the cost of living crisis, but you can look at how different products have changed in prices and the effective inflation rate. Butter is like 30%, whereas on beer, it’s quite a lot less,” he said.
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Angus also noted that the inflation rate used to calculate the rise, the retail price index (RPI), no longer has official statistical status according to the ONS. Instead, the consumer price index is now the preferred rate.
Whatever the rate, it’s subject to annual change. The rate used in the study was published in the most recent budget and came into effect on February 1, but will likely vary by the time the next budget rolls around.
An early 2024 articlecites an older UKSoccerShop study that drew on the December 2023 RPI of 9.6%, far higher than the current rate.
“If the chancellor never makes any deliberate decisions about alcohol taxes, if the chancellor never mentions alcohol in a budget, then what happens by default is that alcohol taxes go up by RPI each year,” said Angus.
“So in the last budget, that RPI rate happened to be 3.66%, but in the next budget it’ll be whatever the RPI rate happens to be for the next 12 months. Whether that’s more or less very much depends on what interesting or horrendous things happen in the world in the next 12 months. It’s very sensitive to unknown future factors.”
Competing on the pitch, not the concourse
With staunchly dedicated fans who show up for the football, Angus said competition over pricing isn’t as much of a concern for clubs.
“In a pub, often the reason people are going to the pub is to drink, and they won’t necessarily be choosing a pub on the basis of how cheap it is, but it might be a factor. Whereas no one’s going to a football ground because they want to drink beer, right?
“You’re not competing with other football clubs on the basis of how cheap your pints are. But also, you’ve got a captive audience. If people want to go and watch their team, then they have to buy your pints while they’re there.”
Angus, a Norwich City supporter, said he’s surprised that the projected price isn’t higher than it is.
“£8.72, to be honest, sounds like a bargain to me. I’m surprised it’s that low. I’d be surprised it wasn’t more than that [in 2035],” he said.
“If I go to a big gig or something, you feel quite happy if you get change out of a tenner for a pint, because you’re absolutely a captive audience. And so it sounds like the football clubs aren’t price gouging to the same extent that other settings could be.”
North-South divide continues
Prestwell also pointed out the North-South divide in pricing, with London clubs making up four of the five most expensive pints, while only one of the five clubs sporting the cheapest pints was further south than Liverpool.
“What’s surprising is that Old Trafford, home to one of the biggest clubs in world football, will still have pints at just over four quid in 2035,” he said in the press release. “Meanwhile, Arsenal fans will be paying nearly nine. The North-South divide in matchday costs is becoming really pronounced.”
Northern clubs make up the majority of the league’s cheapest pints.
For Angus, the price divide is no surprise.
“We expect the price of everything to be a bit different depending where in the country you are. If we look at the prices of how much stuff costs in shops, things tend to be more expensive in London,” the professor said.
With many of the capital’s boroughs comfortably among thehighest median income earners, it only makes sense; if fans can pay more, clubs can charge more.
“There’s also what kind of clientele you’ve got. How much disposable income do the people who are in the stands have? How much will they stomach paying for something? How much can you get away with?” Angus said.
Young adult drinking on the decline
At a time when season ticket prices are being announced, and future kits are being released –and even worn –Angus says clubs may be evaluating their concession prices.
“It’s not impossible that part of the big brain calculation about all of this would be, ‘you know what, we’re increasing the ticket prices. Maybe we want to try and keep the beer cheaper, to make it feel like everything’s more affordable,’” he said.
“Or, on the other hand, some people might be like ‘everything’s getting more expensive, the fans have kind of accepted that stuff’s more expensive. Maybe we can get away with increasing the prices of a pint a bit more.’”
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But crowds in 2035 may be buying less regardless of the price. According to Alcohol Change UK, drinking between young adults – categorised as 16-24 – hasdropped in recent times.
“Young people nowadays drink way less than I did as a young person, or my generation did,” said Angus. “So I would expect as that generation becomes a bigger proportion of the crowd, you would see fewer alcohol sales.”
Whatever the future holds, football fans will be paying more for all things associated with their teams, whether that’s pints, tickets, kits, or oddly selected club shop items.
By how much?
Only time will tell.
Nkele Martin
Nkele (pronounced kay-lay) Martin is a Canadian multimedia journalist with experience covering sports, arts & culture and politics across the globe. When he tells people he’s a football fan, many ask him about his takes on the NFL, but he’s been supporting Manchester United from across the pond since 2013. Most recently, he spent some time at the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation's (CBC) Ottawa bureau as a local reporter.
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