When Mike Schmitz was hired as the Dallas Mavericks’ new general manager under the newly minted head man Masai Ujiri, he was hailed as a master talent evaluator.
Now, with the Mavericks landing the No. 9 overall pick in the upcoming NBA Draft after Sunday’s Draft Lottery, we turn our eyes toward some of the moves he had a hand in as assistant GM for the Portland Trail Blazers and some of his hotter takes on incoming NBA talent during his time analyzing the draft for DraftExpress and ESPN.
This year’s draft is full of electrifying, potentially franchise-shifting talent at the top, but there are tiers. It’s levels to this shit, as a wise man once said. The Mavs will not be operating on the tippy top level if they keep the ninth pick and select from the leftovers after the top two tiers are all but gutted. It is, on its face, a disappointing result given the season Mavericks fans just endured.
As Ujiri himself said in a recent sit-down interview with Mavericks Chief Comms Officer Gina Miller, “[The NBA Draft Lottery is] a moment where we’re all human beings. You feel it. You know what the odds are, but you still feel like you are the one [to move up].”
And when it doesn’t happen, like for the Raptors in 2025 or for the Mavs this year, you may find yourself kicking rocks with your head hung low on a lonesome stretch of highway as a tumbleweed drifts by.
But at the very least, there are smart people in charge now. They are formulating a plan. These are people who have an actual vision; they’re not manufacturing one for spin after dropping a nuke on the thing you love.
So here are some of Schmitz’ Greatest Hits. Play these on repeat as you wonder how the Mavericks deal with the 2026 offseason.
The 2018 NBA Draft
Schmitz was all-in on Luka Dončić in the run-up to the 2018 NBA Draft, as he worked as an analyst for ESPN. The headline clipped and shared across social media in the days since his hiring in Dallas reads, “There has never been an NBA draft prospect like Slovenia’s Luka Dončić.”
The first-round draft results from that year are pure comedy with the benefit of eight years’ hindsight. The great debate for many was Ayton or Dončić at No. 1, which has proven over the last eight years to be a complete laugher.
Schmitz called Dončić a “unicorn.” He called the Mavericks the “clear winner” of the draft after all the cards were turned in. He referred to Dončić as a “historic” prospect with unparalleled skill, basketball IQ, and winning experience for his age. He heard the criticism of Dončić’s athleticism and tried to convince the masses that it didn’t matter.
He was 100% right. The deceleration move that Dončić befuddled better athlete after better athlete with has been mimicked and copy-catted to death in the years since.
The 2020 NBA Draft
Schmitz’s soothsaying after the 2020 NBA Draft should be a case study for talent evaluation. He nailed it all in the above post on what was then Twitter (ah, simpler times), save for underselling Anthony Edwards and Franz Wagner a little bit.
LaMelo Ball has proven out. Deni Avdija has proven out, and Schmitz’s hand in bringing Avdija to the Trail Blazers will be covered later. Okongwu has proven out, fresh off a season where he averaged 15.2 points and nearly eight rebounds a game. The Tyrese Haliburton nod was downright psychic. The specificity with which he described Tyrese Maxey’s potential may be the most impressive item on his list, and these last two citations should encourage Mavs fans the most. Picking from a less-than-optimal spot, Schmitz can spot the dog among more highly touted also-rans.
This unique talent could also serve Dallas well at the 30th pick.
Early Wembanyama adopter
Schmitz is such an international talent geek, it’s delicious. Mavs fans in particular, what with the team’s penchant for going and getting great players from overseas, should be salivating at the thought of his finger anywhere near the trigger.
He was among the earliest adopters of one Victor Wembanyama, releasing the following assessment in 2020, three years before The Alien was drafted by the San Antonio Spurs: “The prototypical NBA center is shrinking as the league gets smaller. But Wembanyama is different. Not only does he put a lid on the rim like Rudy Gobert, he also shows the floor-spacing potential of a young Kristaps Porzingis, with a far better handle and passing feel.”
Wembanyama was just 16 at the time Schmitz wrote that. It’s a bit harder to miss Wembanyama, what with his singular frame and skillset, but Schmitz still gets points for being one of the first to recognize the paradigm shifting nature of his potential arrival on the scene.
Spot-on assessment of Jalen Williams
Schmitz called Jalen Williams the steal of the 2022 draft a month before the picks were in.
“Easy to see him generating substantial 1st round buzz during the pre-draft process,” Schmitz said of the 6-foot-6 prospect with a 7-foot-2 wingspan. He did exactly that and has since proven to, indeed, be the steal of that draft class.
He just seems to have a track record for being in on guys who go on to over-achieve. Schmitz is a seeker. He’ll find you a dude.
Bringing Avdija and Camara to Portland
As then-assistant GM, Schmitz theoretically had at least some input into the trade that netted the Blazers Avdija’s services in exchange for Malcolm Brogdon, the 14th pick in the 2024 draft (which ended up being Bub Carrington), a 2029 first-round pick and two second-rounders. This was highway robbery.
Avdija’s jump in production during the 2025-26 season is something many predicted after a couple of seasons playing in Washington. Many Mavericks fans and analysts wished the team could have put together a package for Avdija rather than Daniel Gafford on deadline day in 2024. But Schmitz not only predicted Avdija’s ascension years earlier, he was also part of the team that put together a package to fleece the poor Wizards of the prospect he knew was about to arrive. Chess moves.
A year earlier, following Damian Lillard’s request for a trade after 11 seasons in Portland, Schmitz & Co. were still able to command a substantial haul when the Trail Blazers obliged him. They did not, in retrospect, get held over a barrel in the process. They got Deandre Ayton, Jrue Holliday and Toumani Camara, who was considered at the time something of a throw-in piece but has since developed into one of the best defensive stoppers in the league. He was a second-team All-Defensive Team selection a year ago after being drafted 52nd overall in 2023.
The Yang Hansen of it all
Schmitz’s detractors will point to his role in trading for Yang Hansen, whom the Memphis Grizzlies selected with the 16th pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, as evidence that he takes too many risks on international prospects that he likes over surer shots on the draft board. Schmitz was suspended for two weeks without pay by the NBA in April after the team self-reported that Schmitz and his fellow co-general manager, Sergio Oliva, made illegal contact with Yang in 2023, two years before the youngster from China was eventually drafted by the team. The NBA also fined the Blazers $100,000 for that self-reported violation.
That deal may well go down as a mistake, but the Blazers also secured a first-round pick and two second-rounders in the deal. The jury is still out on Yang, who is just 20, by the way. The concern here is that the Mavericks don’t have a bunch of draft capital to experiment with in the next few years. They don’t fully own their first-rounders in either the 2027 or 2028 drafts.
Now that we know where the Mavs stand in the draft order, visions of trade scenarios like Yang-for-Coward will no doubt begin to dance in our collective heads? What could the Mavericks get for, say, P.J. Washington and No. 9? How far could the Mavs move up if they found someone interested in Dereck Lively II and the ninth pick?
The onus is on Ujiri and Schmitz to get it right this year. Good thing they’ve both shown a talent for wheeling, dealing and making the pieces fit.