Arsenal are five points clear at the top of the Premier League with two games remaining, and depending on what happens at the Etihad Stadium on Wednesday night, Mikel Arteta’s side could be confirmed as Premier League champions as early as Monday evening when Burnley visit the Emirates.
The 1-0 win at West Ham on Sunday was nervy, controversial and absolutely beautiful. Leandro Trossard’s 83rd-minute goal, the Hammers’ disallowed equaliser deep into added time, all of it. We got there. Five points clear. Two games to play. Twenty-two years of waiting condensed into what could now be a matter of days.
Win both of our remaining games and we are champions regardless of what Manchester City do. That is the cleanest version of events and the one every Arsenal fan should be expecting. But there are other routes to the title too, depending on how Wednesday night unfolds, and understanding the permutations is half the fun when you are this close to something this big.
Arsenal Premier League title permutations: every scenario explained
Here is every possible route to Arsenal winning the Premier League title, broken down by date:
Date Fixture Condition Result
Monday 18th May Arsenal vs Burnley City fail to beat Palace on Wednesday Arsenal champions
Tuesday 19th May Bournemouth vs Man City Arsenal beat Burnley, City beat Palace, City then fail to beat Bournemouth Arsenal champions
Sunday 24th May Arsenal vs Crystal Palace City win both remaining games, title goes to final day Arsenal win title if they beat Palace
Monday 18th May: Arsenal vs Burnley at the Emirates
This is the one. This is the night every Arsenal fan has been dreaming about since the first week of the season. If City fail to beat Crystal Palace on Wednesday, they will be four or five points behind Arsenal with just two games to play. An Arsenal win over already-relegated Burnley would give us an unassailable lead of seven or eight points. The Premier League title would be confirmed at the Emirates. The party nobody dares fully believe in yet would begin.
If City win on Wednesday, Monday night against Burnley cannot be decisive. But if Pep Guardiola’s side slip up, we will not need a second invitation. Burnley are down, their season is over and they will be playing in the Championship next year. The Emirates on a Monday night with the title within touching distance is not a fixture we should be dropping points in.
Tuesday 19th May: Bournemouth vs Man City
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City will not play on the weekend of May 16-17 because of the FA Cup final against Chelsea at Wembley. That means their penultimate league fixture, away at Bournemouth, has been pushed back to Tuesday 19th May, three days after the cup final and five before the Premier League finale. Three days to recover from a Wembley final and then face a Bournemouth side that are on a long unbeaten run, chasing European football and playing their last home game under Andoni Iraola.
If Arsenal have beaten Burnley on the Monday but City are somehow still alive, Bournemouth will be doing us the most enormous favour by simply being themselves. The Vitality Stadium crowd will want to send Iraola off in style. City, fatigued from a cup final, travelling to a hostile atmosphere with everything on the line, is not a scenario that fills you with dread from an Arsenal perspective.
Sunday 24th May: Arsenal at Crystal Palace, final day
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If it comes to this, it means City have won both their remaining games and the title is still to be decided on the final day. Arsenal travel to Selhurst Park knowing a win confirms the championship. It is the least straightforward of the three possible dates, but even then the situation is firmly in our hands.
Palace have a Conference League final against Rayo Vallecano in Leipzig three days after facing Arsenal. Oliver Glasner has already said he will do what is best for Crystal Palace, which may or may not involve a rotated side. Guardiola himself backed Palace to be professional, and that is probably right. But whatever team Glasner puts out, this Arsenal squad has the quality to go to south London and win a football match. We have beaten Atletico Madrid in Europe. We can handle Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park.
The simplest equation is always the best one. Win on Monday. Win on the final day. Do not give City a route back in. This is Arsenal’s title and we are going to win it the right way.
Related Items:Burnley, Latest Mikel Arteta News | Transfer News | Injury News and Update, Manchester City
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