MIAMI - Had the odds been beaten at the NBA draft lottery, had the Miami Heat (Shop Heat Fan Gear) moved into one of the top four selections, a case could have been made for a claim of malpractice had the team then turned around and agreed to trade such a pick.
Such opportunities come around only so often, with this draft unique in terms of its top-tier talent.
But the Heat didn't beat those odds.
And at No. 13, the calculus is completely different.
Therefore, moving off No. 13 might ultimately be the best play.
Why?
Because of Pelle Larsson, Kasparas Jakucionis, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kel'el Ware and perhaps, still, Nikola Jovic.
While the ongoing playoffs might make it feel otherwise, by the Heat moving off of Duncan Robinson last summer it allowed Erik Spoelstra and his staff to better serve the developmental wing of the roster.
Considering the Heat will continue to play to win, and therefore continue to play veterans for consistent minutes, the youth pipeline potentially could prove clogged by yet another mid-tier first-round pick.
That isn't to say there won't be quality there at No. 13. There will. And likely the type of talent that the Heat will proclaim post-selection was much higher on their board (when have they not?).
But through all the travails of a second consecutive 10th-place finish, developmental strides were made, tangible growth spurts for what could follow.
Larsson became a rotation presence.
Jakucionis outkicked his No. 20 slot in last year's draft.
Jaquez reversed his sophomore slump.
Ware tempted more often than not.
And then there is Jovic, with hope of a Jaquez-like turnaround (with a locked-in $62.4 million extension that starts next season in the balance).
That's not to say that a player selected at No. 13 can't or won't be better than any of those five. One or two of the possibilities assuredly will be. This draft is that deep.
But as the Heat have learned over the years, and even against some of the competition they likely have on the Giannis Antetokounmpo trade market, future first-round picks are worthy far more than those about to be put into play.
For some teams, seeding the pipeline is essential in the middle of the first round. For years, that had been the case with the Heat, after Pat Riley, with his previous contending builds, had lived in the moment at the expense of such selections.
But now, if the Heat want/need to develop, there is ample youth to develop, a five-man pool of Ware, Jovic, Larsson, Jaquez and Jakucionis that, at the least, offers intrigue.
And if the Heat are in star-chase mode, especially if the chase has a Greek flavor, then No. 13 could be more valuable in packaging regard, as well.
The rub, of course, is that Adam Simon likely already has his pick in mind, already is set to turn to Erik Spoelstra on draft night and tell him he now has his power forward (or scoring guard or whatever position the pick), just as he was caught on the team's social media last year during the first round telling Spoelstra he had his point guard in Jakucionis.
On one hand, when a team selects in the lottery, the logical next step is a draft party, part of the hype of the next newcomer to be marketed.
This time, prudence with such planning would be sage.
A selection at No. 13 would make the 2026-27 Heat better.
But developing what is in place and deferring the pick to another draft could set up a better future.
The best of all worlds? The Heat making a selection and then bypassing any post-pick pomp, knowing the selection is heading elsewhere as part of the type of trade that transforms the roster.
In a perfect world, Adam Silver offers on June 23 at Brooklyn's Barclays Center, "With the No. 13 pick in the 2026 NBA draft, the Miami Heat select a player who actually is going to Milwaukee."
In a semi-perfect world, the pick at No. 13 still is moved elsewhere.
Because resurrection doesn't begin by loading up on players selected in the middle of the first round. It begins by planning and building for something more substantial down the road.
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