Arne Slot may have won the Premier League last season, but for over 60 percent of his reign, Liverpool have been performing as a team that shouldn’t qualify for the Champions League.
Despite an incredibly poor campaign, Liverpool find themselves with Champions League qualification still in their hands.
If the Reds beat Brentford, they will finish on 62 points; only once in the last 14 years, when Jurgen Klopp took over in 2015/16, have they accumulated fewer.
While Liverpool will likely “still ‘win’ qualification for the Champions League,” as Slot put it, they are fortunate to even be in that position.
MANCHESTER, ENGLAND - Sunday, May 3, 2026: Liverpool's head coach Arne Slot during the FA Premier League match between Manchester United FC and Liverpool FC at Old Trafford. (Photo by David Rawcliffe/Propaganda)
While Slot may see the minimum standards as being met if they are playing Champions League football next season, the higher-ups at Liverpool should be looking at the underlying numbers.
Qualification for the European Cup could be a red herring when judging the team’s performance this season.
A lower points tally required for Champions League qualification
Usually, fourth place is required to reach the Champions League, and Liverpool aren’t close to the average points tally for that position.
Thanks to UEFA’s bonus coefficient spot, though, fifth place will qualify for the European Cup this season – and it might have saved Slot his job.
The Champions League Safety Net
Metric 20-Year PL Average Liverpool (2025/26)
Points for 4th Place 70 pts 62 pts*
Points for 5th Place 63 pts 62 pts*
Min. Required for 4th 64 pts 62 pts*
*Projected total if Liverpool beat Brentford on the final day.
Here is the standard set for Champions League qualification over the last 20 years of the Premier League:
• The team finishing fourth in the Premier League has averaged 70 points
• The team finishing fifth has averaged 63 points
• Therefore, the minimum tally required to finish fourth has been 64 points on average
Liverpool will achieve a total of 62 points if they beat Brentford on the final day.
Liverpool are a 60-point team now
MANCHESTER, ENGLAND - Sunday, May 3, 2026: Liverpool's Florian Wirtz and Dominik Szoboszlai (R) react to conceding the second goal during the FA Premier League match between Manchester United FC and Liverpool FC at Old Trafford. (Photo by David Rawcliffe/Propaganda)
The Reds could finish on 62 points this season, but that doesn’t quite tell the full story of Liverpool’s form.
They won their opening five games of the campaign, which has effectively saved them from mid-table mediocrity.
Since the opening five games, the Reds have averaged 1.38 points per game. Across a full season, that would be worth 52 points, which would see them in eighth.
Slot’s League Form Collapse
Time Period PPG Projected Season
First 29 PL GamesBefore 2025 League Cup Final 2.40 91 pts
Last 46 PL GamesSince 2025 League Cup Final 1.59 63 pts
Last 32 PL GamesSince Sep 21, 2025 1.38 52 pts
It is a standard that is clearly unacceptable and will surely be improved on next time around.
At the moment, the UK press and the manager himself insist it will be Slot leading the team next season.
A chief reason for this is the Dutchman’s success achieved during his first year in charge. Nothing should take away from the achievement of winning the title.
As the head coach has told us, only on one other occasion have Liverpool done it in the last 35 years.
BIRMINGHAM, ENGLAND - Friday, May 15, 2026: Liverpool's head coach Arne Slot applauds the travelling supporters after the FA Premier League match between Aston Villa FC and Liverpool FC at Villa Park. Aston Villa won 4-2. (Photo by David Rawcliffe/Propaganda)
However, Liverpool have been playing at a level well below what is required to be champions for the majority of the boss’ time at Anfield.
Since losing last year’s League Cup final on March 16, Liverpool have played 47 league matches and averaged 1.6 points per game.
Therefore, Slot’s season have been playing like a team that gets 60 points per season for over 60 percent of his reign.
Before the 2025 League Cup final, Slot’s side was managing 2.4 points per game, which would average out at a 91-point campaign.
A problem wingers alone won’t fix
After Liverpool’s ninth away defeat of the Premier League campaign, against Aston Villa – their most since 2011/12 – Slot was keen to try and reassure fans that things will be different come next season.
He said: “I can understand at this moment of time that they don’t have a lot of confidence, or a lot of feeling that things can be much better next season.
“But I think then they are underestimating what a window can do, what a new start can do, and I think we know quite well what to improve.”
The new start won’t involve Andy Robertson or Mo Salah; Liverpool haven’t won any of their nine Premier League games that Salah hasn’t started in 2026.
Instead, there should be new wingers to provide dynamism on and off the ball. This will help the team, but it has become increasingly evident over the last few months that this isn’t a solution to all of Liverpool’s problems.
LIVERPOOL, ENGLAND - Tuesday, April 14, 2026: Liverpool's Mohamed Salah waves good-bye to the supporters after the UEFA Champions League Quarter-Final 2nd Leg match between Liverpool FC and Paris Saint-Germain FC at Anfield. PSG won 4-0 on aggregate. (Photo by David Rawcliffe/Propaganda)
If Liverpool’s poor form was solely down to their attack, they wouldn’t have conceded 51 Premier League goals this season – their most in a 38-game season since 1914/15, according to Opta’s Michael Reid.
The team’s underlying numbers across not just recent weeks, but the last 14 months, indicate the Reds may have over-performed during Slot’s early period in the job.
That isn’t to say he can’t improve. After all, the 47-year-old is learning on the job and has yet to face adversity as he has at Liverpool, on and off the pitch, during his career.
Prior to arriving on Merseyside, he had never lost two consecutive matches as a coach.
You would naturally expect things to improve as time goes on, even if that is very slowly.
However, given the standards at Liverpool and the sums spent, he may not be deemed the right man to quickly guide Liverpool out of the mire.