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Arsenal target already in ‘risk management’ mode – Halfway out the door

Arsenal’s growing interest in Danilo now comes with a very clear backdrop. The Botafogo midfielder increasingly looks like a player already halfway out the door.

The 24-year-old was unexpectedly pulled from Botafogo’s match against Corinthians on Sunday, officially for “personal reasons”. This was reported by Globo Esporte.

The timing immediately raised eyebrows in Brazil, especially because Danilo had been expected to start in such an important match. So the bigger picture around him is becoming impossible to ignore.

Botafogo still won 3-1 without him. However, the conversation afterwards was almost entirely about the midfielder’s future.

And Arsenal are right in the middle of it now.

Arsenal leading English interest

As previously reported, Arsenal have already made contact with Danilo’s staff. They have moved beyond simple scouting and into more concrete positioning around the player.

That matters even more now. This is because the sense in Brazil is that Danilo’s departure after the World Cup is becoming increasingly inevitable.

The midfielder is enjoying the best form of his career, with 9 goals and 3 assists in 21 matches this season, and is expected to be named in Carlo Ancelotti’s Brazil squad.

Botafogo believe a strong tournament could push his value towards €40m (£34m), while current market expectations still sit closer to €25m-30m (£21m-26m). Arsenal’s timing therefore looks smart.

While several clubs are waiting to see how the World Cup changes the market, the Gunners have already started laying groundwork around the player’s camp.

Why Danilo was left out

Brazilian reports now suggest the decision to remove Danilo from the Corinthians match was influenced by several factors at once.

There was concern over fatigue after four starts in 12 days. There is also ongoing management of an ankle issue which still bothers him occasionally. Most importantly, Danilo himself is fully focused on protecting his chances of going to the World Cup.

That created some tension internally.

According to Globo Esporte, Danilo told manager Franclim Carvalho before the match that “he didn’t have his head in the right place to play”. Even after remaining in the squad initially, another conversation on matchday morning led to him being withdrawn completely.

Also, had Danilo played against Corinthians, he would have reached 13 league appearances and become ineligible to represent another Brazilian club in the first division. Staying on 12 keeps the door open for Palmeiras or Flamengo.

Still, Botafogo themselves reportedly believe it is highly unlikely either Brazilian club will reach the €40m (£34m) figure they want. Europe remains the priority – both for the club and the player.

‘Risk management’ before the World Cup

At this point, every decision around Danilo feels tied to the World Cup.

Brazilian reports suggest he may not even play again before the tournament. Despite still being available in theory for upcoming matches, the situation is increasingly being treated as a mixture of physical caution, transfer planning and pure “risk management”.

Danilo does not want to decide his future before the World Cup either. The feeling around the player is that the tournament could completely reshape the level of clubs pushing for him. And that is where Arsenal come back into the picture.

Danilo wants another opportunity in Europe and, more specifically, in England. After his mixed spell at Nottingham Forest, there is a strong feeling around the player that he still has something to prove at Premier League level.

Fulham,Manchester United,Newcastle and Tottenham have all been linked in recent weeks. But Arsenal now looks like the club moving with the most purpose in England.

And with Botafogo already preparing for life after Danilo, the market around him is only getting hotter.

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