Sunderland ended the season in strong form to book a place in the Europa League
For much of the campaign, there has been a big debate amongst neutrals about Sunderland and to what extent their exceptional campaign has been down to good fortune.
Their XG data has been relatively poor, with Opta's table by that metric suggesting the Black Cats were fortunate to beat relegation. The debate was given extra oxygen when Sunderland climbed into seventh-place on final day, securing a Europa League place despite finishing with a negative goal difference. Undoubtedly they have been a little fortunate - it's unusual to qualify for European competition with 54 points and there have been plenty of other campaigns where that haul would have meant top half but nothing more.
It's also clearly the case that through the first half of the season in particular, they were consistently coming out on the right side of very tight games. In another season, maybe they wouldn't have gained quite so many positive results early on and the table would have looked different as they headed into that AFCON period.
The debate is relevant because it's that data which leads many to believe the Black Cats are certain to suffer from second-season syndrome, particularly now that they have the extra demands of playing Thursday-Sunday. The debate missed a couple of key points, though, and there are reasons for Sunderland fans to be optimistic heading into next season.
The first is that the focus on Sunderland's at times indifferent performance data in the opening months of the campaign can more often than not be very reductive. Yes, they were a team that often outperformed XG but that they were able to do so wasn't purely down to luck. Sunderland knew that especially in the opening months of the season, they were going to spend long spells out of possession and that they would have to be exceptionally good at defending their box. They recruited accordingly, with players such as Reinildo, Nordi Mukiele and Omar Alderete signed because of their experience but also because the data that showed they were top level in the air, in 1-v-1 duels and in putting their bodies on the line when it counts. Sunderland's total XG against was high, yes, but the average XG of each opposition shot was comparatively low: Sunderland were encouraging the opposition to shoot and cross from areas that usually deliver a low percentage chance of a goal and trusting the defenders to do the job they'd been signed for. Once or twice it cost them (think Matty Cash's long-range strike for Aston Villa) but broadly the approach worked for the Black Cats who learned the lessons of previously promoted teams who suffered having attempted to go toe-to-toe with the opposition. You could argue that they were indebted to Robin Roefs but equally you have to credit the talent ID and incredibly gutsy call to put their trust in such a young goalkeeper.
Of course Sunderland were a little fortunate to fly so high in those early months, and of course it caught up with them a little later in the season. Having so often come out of the right side of tight games at home especially, that began to turn as the Black Cats lost to Liverpool, Fulham and Brighton in quick succession. It's XG is such a prominent statistic even if many fans don't like it, generally it accurately predicts how a team will fare over a longer period of time. The data said Sunderland had to get better and they knew it; which is exactly what they went and did.
This is perhaps the most crucial point that the debate around Sunderland's performance level and data so often misses: they are a different team to the one that started the campaign. After securing safety with a backs-to-the-wall win at Leeds, we have seen the team evolve and improve particularly when it comes to creating chances from open play.
Though that win at Elland Road carried the template of those early season wins as Sunderland defended deep and enjoyed moments of luck to go with their impressive mentality and last-ditch defending, it has been the exception rather than the norm through the last few months. From the Tyne-Wear derby in March onwards, Sunderland have over the last eight games of the campaign produced an average XG of 1.33 - up from just under one before then. In those eight games, they have had a superior XG to their opponent on four occasions and one of the games they didn't was the trip to Wolves where they played for around 70 minutes with ten men. The point here is that the data would suggest that the impressive form Sunderland have produced over those eight games (carried over the course of a full campaign, it would take them to an exceptional 66 points) isn't luck but a reflection of a jump in performance level.
Sunderland's XG against has at times gone up to match, particularly in disappointing defeats to Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest where they shipped nine goals in two games. Since then, however, Le Bris has found a good balance with Trai Hume's deployment as a right winger allowing Enzo Le Fée and Chemsdine Talbi to play in their natural and more attacking positions. Le Fée in particular has had a huge impact since moving into the middle of the pitch, which bodes well for next season. You can say that Sunderland were fortunate to finish seventh given their all-round performance level early in the season, equally you have to say they ended it playing very well and outperforming some very strong opponents.
Sunderland are a long way from the finished article, and they will obviously suffer at times next season because of the extra schedule. Expectations will need to reflect the fact that Sunderland could improve as an all-round team next season but still finish lower in the table. What we have seen in the last few weeks nevertheless suggests Le Bris is at the very least starting to get to grips with the key question he has wrestled with in the second half of the season: how do I protect the exceptional defensive mentality in this team but ensure we are more of a threat? With a good transfer window, there's every reason to believe Sunderland can be competitive on two fronts. Do they need to get better as a team from where they have been this season? Absolutely. But the evidence very clearly suggests that process is already underway.
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