Images via Reuters
The race for the 2026 Ballon d'Or is really heating up, with some of the biggest stars on the planet staking a serious claim with incredible performances at the World Cup.
The likes of Lionel Messi and Rodri, who both played in the final, have dragged themselves into the discussion after being overlooked prior to the biggest international competition in the world. Elsewhere, Kylian Mbappe and Harry Kane continued their impressive club form during the tournament.
But there isn't a clear front-runner, which was often the case during Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo's decade of dominance. To try and find the clear favourite, a formula has been put together to rank the 12 favourites in order.
Ballon d'Or Study Explained
The Ballon d'Or trophy displayed at the Santiago Bernabeu
A Reddit user has come up with a formula that takes several metrics into account, such as goals + assists, POTS awards and trophies.
The formula has been explained by the user: "There has been a lot of discussion about who deserves this year’s Ballon d’Or, so I wanted to put the main contenders side by side. I collected some of the most important statistics and achievements to compare 12 of the current favourites.
"The graphic compares their goals, assists, goal contributions, trophies, all-competition Player of the Match awards and major individual honours. Gold, silver and bronze highlight the top three in each category.
"It also uses a simple weighted model - 40% G+A, 20% POTM, 20% trophies, 12% Player of the Season/Tournament awards and 8% Golden Boots - to produce a provisional ranking."
Spain's Lamine Yamal celebrates with the World Cup trophy
Spain's Lamine Yamal celebrates with the World Cup trophy
It admittedly favours attacking players with goals and assists playing a big part, as they continued: "This ranking naturally favours attackers, which applies to almost all of the listed favourites apart from Rodri. His attacking output should therefore be largely disregarded in the Ballon d’Or discussion, but I still felt obliged to include him because of his overall influence and place among the leading candidates."
Lionel Messi Deserves Second-Place Ballon d'Or Finish
Credit: Jerome Miron (IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters)
Messi, an eight-time winner of the award, falls just short of first place in this study. The Inter Miami forward narrowly missed out on the World Cup Golden Ball despite netting eight goals at 39 years old, and the Argentina icon would have to settle for second place again.
But that still puts him a lot higher than the man who beat him to being named the World Cup's best player, Rodri. The Spaniard finishes dead last in these rankings despite some wonderful displays on world football's biggest stage. As previously mentioned, the model leans towards attacking players, so the Man City stalwart only manages a 25.8 score out of 100.
Lionel Messi (Argentina) and Rodri (Spain)
Lionel Messi (Argentina) and Rodri (Spain)
That puts him behind the likes of Deniz Undav (33.0), Luis Diaz (41.0) and even Manchester United's Bruno Fernandes (41.8). The latter did break the Premier League's all-time assist record in a single season this year, but he's hardly been mentioned in the Ballon d'Or conversation.
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia is in eighth, most likely held back by Georgia's failure to qualify for the World Cup this summer. However, he only just scores less than Real Madrid hero Kylian Mbappe and his PSG teammate Ousmane Dembele.
Elsewhere, Lamine Yamal and Erling Haaland narrowly miss out on places on the podium. Both had big World Cup tournaments and managed impressive goal and assist hauls over the season. Yamal got 45, while Haaland registered 69 for club and country.
That leaves two Bayern Munich stars in the top three alongside Messi. Michael Olise broke Pele's assist record in a single World Cup campaign (7), and manages to sneak into third spot here due to his impressive tally of 34 for club and country.
However, Olise and Messi are beaten to the crown by England's talisman, Harry Kane. The 33-year-old smashed in 74 goals, which is one of the highest-scoring seasons of the 21st century. An Englishman hasn't won the Golden Ball since Michael Owen in 2001, but Kane is certainly in the running after a brilliant club season and firing the Three Lions to their best World Cup finish since 1966.