BOSTON, MA - MARCH 14: Trae Young #3 of the Washington Wizards looks on during the game against the Boston Celtics on March 14, 2026 at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Brian Babineau/NBAE via Getty Images)
BOSTON, MA - MARCH 14: Trae Young #3 of the Washington Wizards looks on during the game against the Boston Celtics on March 14, 2026 at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Brian Babineau/NBAE via Getty Images)
NBA salaries are getting completely out of control, and Donovan Mitchell is probably the best recent example. The Cavaliers just gave him a four-year, $273.0 million max extension that starts in 2027-28, meaning Mitchell is projected to make $65.8 million in 2028-29, $70.6 million in 2029-30 and then hold a $75.5 million player option for 2030-31, his age-34 season. Mitchell is great right now, but paying any 34-year-old guard $75.5 million is a pretty scary idea.
Jaylen Brown is another good example of where the league is heading. He’ll already make roughly $65.6 million in 2028-29 at age 32, and after his trade to the 76ers, Philadelphia can currently offer him another year worth almost $69.0 million. If Brown waits, his options get even crazier, including a potential four-year extension worth more than $300.0 million in 2028.
That doesn’t mean Mitchell or Brown are bad contracts today, far from it, but NBA teams are making bets that these stars will still be worth superstar money three or four years from now. Sometimes that works, sometimes age, injuries or younger teammates change everything very quickly, so these are the five star contracts I think have the biggest chance of looking much worse by 2028.
5. Domantas Sabonis
2026-27 Salary: $45.5 million | 2027-28 Salary: $48.6 million
Domantas Sabonis has the shortest contract on this list, which is the main reason I have him only fifth, but I’m already a little worried about how that final $48.6 million season could look. Sabonis is 30 now and coming off easily his worst season with the Kings, playing only 19 games and averaging 15.8 points, 11.4 rebounds and 4.1 assists, then eventually having surgery on his left knee.
The problem isn’t only the injury. Sabonis shot 18.5% from three last season, averaged just 0.2 blocks and still needs a lot of offensive touches to create his full value, so there are limits to how easy he is to build around. He is an excellent passer, rebounder and interior scorer when healthy, but paying almost $50.0 million for a big man who doesn’t protect the rim at an elite level or seriously stretch the floor can become difficult very fast.
Two years ago, Sabonis averaging around 19 points, 14 rebounds, and eight assists made that money much easier to understand, but now Sacramento has to hope the knee problems were only one bad year rather than the start of something bigger. He’ll be 32 when the contract ends, and big men who depend on strength, rebounding, and movement can lose a step quickly once their body starts giving them problems.
At least the Kings aren’t stuck here forever. Sabonis will become an unrestricted free agent after 2027-28, so even if things go badly, Sacramento can simply let the contract expire instead of carrying another two or three giant salaries afterward.
That keeps him below the other four, but if Sabonis struggles to stay healthy again and his scoring remains around 15 points per game, $48.6 million in 2027-28 is going to look really rough.
4. Donovan Mitchell
Contract Extension: Four years, $273.0 million | 2028-29 Salary: $65.8 million
This one feels almost unfair right now because Donovan Mitchell is coming off another excellent season. He averaged 27.9 points, 4.5 rebounds and 5.7 assists, shot 48.3% from the field, made his seventh straight All-Star team and remains one of the best scoring guards in basketball. Cleveland had to pay him, I don’t really think there was another reasonable option.
The part I don’t love is what happens at the end. Mitchell’s new extension starts at $60.9 million in 2027-28, then rises to $65.8 million, $70.6 million and finally a $75.5 million player option. He’ll be 32 during the 2028-29 season, 33 when the salary reaches $70.6 million and 34 if he takes that final option.
That is a huge bet on a 6-foot-2 guard keeping most of his explosion into his mid-30s. Mitchell’s scoring is built around pull-up shooting, quick first steps, attacking the rim and creating separation, and those are skills that can become harder once a smaller guard loses even a little athleticism.
The Cavaliers also aren’t paying this money after winning a championship. They reached the Eastern Conference Finals last season but got swept by the Knicks, including a 130-93 Game 4 loss, so Cleveland is locking itself into massive Mitchell money while still trying to prove this core can actually finish the job.
I still think Mitchell will be very good in 2028, so this isn’t me predicting some sudden collapse. The concern is value, because there is a big difference between being a good 22-point scorer and being worth $70.0 million.
If Mitchell remains an All-NBA player, Cleveland will be fine. If his athleticism falls, injuries start showing up or he becomes more of a secondary star, that final stretch of the contract could become one of the league’s hardest salaries to move.
3. Anthony Davis
2027-28 Player Option: $62.8 million | Extension Eligible: Four Years, $275.0 million
Anthony Davis is the biggest health gamble here, and his situation could get much worse depending on what Washington decides to do with his extension.
Davis played only 20 games last season, the lowest total of his career, averaging 20.4 points, 11.1 rebounds, 2.8 assists, and 1.7 blocks while shooting 50.6% from the field. Those numbers are still very good, but paying almost $60.0 million for 20 games obviously isn’t something any team can survive for long.
He’ll make $58.5 million this season and owns a $62.8 million player option for 2027-28, but the really scary part is what comes next. Davis became eligible this month for an extension worth as much as four years and $275.0 million, although ESPN reported that Washington has decided to wait before having serious negotiations.
I think waiting is the only logical move. Davis will be 34 during the 2027-28 season, and his recent injury history makes giving him four more years at around $70.0 million annually an enormous gamble. When healthy, he can still defend the rim, dominate the glass and give Washington 20-plus points without needing the offense completely built around him, but “when healthy” has become way too important to every conversation about Davis.
Washington also has a different timeline now, with AJ Dybantsa, Alex Sarr and other young players developing, so giving Davis a giant deal that runs deep into his late 30s could eventually hurt the exact young core the Wizards are trying to build.
His current contract isn’t even the main problem for me. If Washington simply lets Davis play this season, waits and refuses to commit long term unless he stays healthy, it can manage the risk.
If the Wizards give him that four-year extension, though, Davis could easily be No. 1 on this list by 2028.
2. Trae Young
2026-27 Salary: $49.5 million | 2028-29 Salary: $54.4 million
I already have concerns about this contract and Trae Young hasn’t even started the first full season of it.
Washington gave Young four years and roughly $212.8 million after he appeared in only 15 games last season, including just five with the Wizards after arriving from the Hawks. Young averaged 17.9 points and 8.0 assists in those games, shooting 45.8% from the field and 33.8% from three, with knee, back and quad problems basically destroying his season.
Obviously, 15 games shouldn’t erase seven years of evidence. Young owns career averages of 25.1 points and 9.8 assists, has made four All-Star teams, and remains one of the best passers in the NBA, so Washington is betting on the healthy version coming back.
But the market already gave us a warning: Atlanta traded Young to Washington for CJ McCollum and Corey Kispert without getting a first-round pick back, then a few months later the Wizards guaranteed him more than $200.0 million. That contract starts at roughly $49.5 million, rises above $54.4 million by 2028-29, and reaches about $58.4 million in its final season.
That could become a major problem if Young isn’t a clear All-Star again. I mean, at 6-foot-1, he’ll always create some defensive problems, and Washington needs him to be elite offensively for the whole thing to work. There isn’t much middle ground here, because paying $55.0 million for one of the league’s best offensive point guards is understandable, but a small guard putting up around 20 points under league average efficiency is completely different.
I actually think Young has a good chance to bounce back next season, especially with better talent around him. But by 2028, if Washington still hasn’t become a playoff team and Young isn’t playing at an All-NBA level again, I think everybody will look back at this contract and wonder why the Wizards were so aggressive after seeing only five games of him in their uniform.
1. De’Aaron Fox
2026-27 Salary: $49.5 million | 2028-29 Salary: $57.4 million
De’Aaron Fox is my No. 1 because this isn’t only about age, salary, or raw production anymore, it’s a matter of being easily replaceable by the Spurs’ younger guards.
Fox averaged 18.6 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 6.2 assists last season while shooting 48.6% from the field and only 33.2% from three. He still made the All-Star team and helped the Spurs reach the NBA Finals, so calling him a bad player would be ridiculous, but those aren’t the numbers San Antonio wants from a guard starting a massive four-year extension.
The deal begins at around $49.5 million this season and eventually climbs above $61.0 million in 2029-30, when Fox will be 32. Originally the extension came at four years and $229.0 million, which didn’t look that bad last year when he first started playing next to Wembanyama. That money wouldn’t scare me nearly as much if Fox were clearly San Antonio’s point guard for the next four years, but of course, I’m not convinced he will be.
Stephon Castle just averaged 16.7 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 7.4 assists at 21 years old, while Dylan Harper averaged 11.8 points and 3.9 assists in only 22.6 minutes as a rookie, shooting 50.5% from the field. Both need the ball, both are much younger than Fox, and both should keep getting bigger roles next to Wemby.
Then Fox struggled badly when the Spurs reached the Finals, shooting only 34% from the field against the Knicks, which immediately created more questions about where he fits long term. That is what makes this contract different from Mitchell’s. Cleveland clearly needs Mitchell to be its main scorer, while San Antonio might discover over the next two years that Castle and Harper can become even better for a lot less money.
Imagine getting to 2028 with Wembanyama entering his prime, Castle becoming an All-Star-level guard, Harper demanding 30-plus minutes, and Fox making close to $58.0 million. That could get uncomfortable very quickly, and it’s a situation that I think the Spurs will experience.
Fox might still prove all of this wrong, as the Spurs just reached the Finals with him and his speed gives them something neither Castle nor Harper completely replaces yet. But of all the stars on this list, his contract has the clearest chance to become the biggest regret before it even expires, and paying more than $60.0 million to a player who could eventually become your third-best guard is exactly how a contract turns that horrible.