We’re a few days on from AC Milan’s draw against Juventus and, unfortunately, it feels like a defeat for some. However, is that just a bit too much?
Drawing in the manner in which Milan did is never pleasant. No one took joy from seeing Federico Gatti meet the ball in the air only to find the back of the net. However, had that not happened, we’d be talking about an excellent game plan playing out.
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Football, however much you want to suggest otherwise, is a game of ifs, buts and maybes. As fans, we all live and die by them. What if Paolo Maldini wasn’t fired? What if Sandro Tonali didn’t leave? Heck, we can even go back to Marco van Basten; what if injuries didn’t ruin his career?
You can continue for as long or as short as you want. The point is that football is fickle – not that there’s an issue with that – but sometimes it’s these what-ifs that spark something more. That’s the aim here.
Why the numbers lie…
When you look at the numbers from the Juventus game, they’re pretty horrible. The Rossoneri appointed Ruben Amorim to play beautiful, attacking football. So, why did they look like a side fielded by Massimiliano Allegri on Sunday?
Well, it’s situational.
Since 2010, how many games have the Diavolo won at the Allianz in Serie A? The answer is four in 18 meetings. Two were 3-0 victories, the other two were 1-0 wins. How many points do you get for a 0-3 win? How many points do you get for a 0-1 win?
The point to make is that until those final minutes, Amorim’s side were on track for a fifth Rossoneri win in 16 years in Turin and how many managers have tried? How many ‘better performances’ have ended with the same result or worse?
Photo by Valerio Pennicino/Getty Images
For those who watched last night’s Champions League games – and we’re sorry to draw this comparison – Inter probably deserved more than a 2-1 defeat. However, lapses in concentration cost them two goals. On another day, without those errors, they probably would have won that game.
Elite football is about being solid in the right moments and managers/coaches have very little ability to alter them. Of course, you can minimise them, or try to. However, this is where situational awareness comes into it.
Juventus had to win that game as much as Milan did; they were always going to be the dominant force after Alphadjo Cisse’s goal. So, why not set yourself up for that as best as possible? Well, Amorim did that.
His team soaked up pressure excellently and only allowed 0.72 xG from then until the full-time whistle. The hosts were relentless in their attacks, but their chances lacked quality until the set-piece at the end.
Their average xG per attempt on goal after Cissé’s opener was 0.12. We’re not talking about Amorim’s leaky defence, but a fantastic defensive display that fell apart because of a last-minute set-piece. It’s a lapse in concentration after almost 30 minutes of non-stop defending.
What is also worth considering is Mario Gila’s removal from the pitch. With him on the pitch, the Rossoneri haven’t conceded; would the same stat still have been in place with him on the pitch for those final minutes, especially with the cross coming from the right side of the box…
You see what we mean by football is a game of ifs?
Differing performances
The aim of this isn’t to defend a disappointing result, but rather the performance.
Most would agree that watching Milan last season became more of a challenge than something to enjoy. Even during the unbeaten run, would you flock to watch games with excitement? The answer – if we’re being brutally honest – is probably not. Even those games felt like a challenge.
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So, when the going got tough, it was a case of ‘it’s game day again *sigh*’, rather than excitement. Now, having a new manager definitely changes things, but we doubt that the same reaction was had before the Venezia clash.
Sunday’s trip to the Allianz deserves to be discounted a little bit, because as already stated, the game is historically a slog. Yet, the Diavolo grabbed a result and showed a different side to themselves. That’s what the focus must be.
Amorim and the Scudetto formula
In his three competitive games so far this season, Amorim has shown an ability to give Milan a different face. Now, the stats would tell you that this weekend’s draw was more Allegri-esque than anything seen under the coach last season.
However, the three games would suggest the opposite. A coach who can react to games, both before them and during them.
During games, his changes have brought four goals – a goal and an assist for Adrien Rabiot, an assist from Alexis Saelemaekers, then an assist from Samuel Chukwueze for Cisse – he’s called the professor for a reason.
However, his entire game plan changed in a week, despite him not previously working that style with the team. They went from an aggressive, front-foot team to a defensive team in the space of a week. Over the season, how many times did Allegri’s side change face, or was it an ‘Allegri team’ throughout?
Photo by AC Milan
Amorim has already warned fans that the road to being successful will be tough and difficult at times; this is one of those cases. Unfortunately, the reaction has been the one that most feared: suggestions that the Portuguese’s appointment was already the wrong one.
Yet, it shows something a lot different to what we’ve seen in recent years. A coach willing to change his style, even if it wasn’t 100% successful.
We’ll leave it with one thing: Amorim’s Milan got a draw at the Allianz. Will that decide the Scudetto? Statistically, it says probably not. In the past five years, only one Scudetto winner has won at the Allianz – Napoli in 2022/23, when Juventus recorded their lowest points tally since 2010/11. With football becoming increasingly scientific, we’d exclude that game on account of it being an anomaly.
Inter last season lost 4-3, Napoli the season before drew 0-0, Inter in 2023/24 drew 1-1, then the Scudetto winners from 2021/22 drew 1-1; sounds familiar…
In other words, it’s too early to give up hope on Amorim because the statistics might tell you to. The eye test may say the same, but how many chances was Allegri given when his football looked no better last season?
Amorim didn’t defend the result, nor did he defend the style of play. Milan have a coach who is not afraid to change his style and not afraid to admit fault. It wasn’t pretty, but it never was going to be at the Allianz; let’s not forget that.
History tells us that a draw at the Allianz is still Scudetto-worthy… so what’s the need to tear down two fantastic results because of one lapse in concentration?