The Manchester derby is back at Old Trafford on Sunday, and the Opta supercomputer has handed Manchester City the edge over Manchester United.
Manchester City have been given a 45.1 per cent chance of winning the game, compared with 30.6 per cent for Manchester United. The remaining percentage points point towards a draw, showing that this is far from a one-sided prediction.
Manchester City arrive at Old Trafford for the much-awaited first derby for Enzo Maresca, sitting top of the Premier League with a perfect nine points from their opening three matches. Manchester United, meanwhile, have four points from their first three league games after losing to Hull City, beating Ipswich Town and then conceding a late equaliser against Everton.
However, there are reasons for Manchester United to feel more confident than their league position suggests.
Manchester United have plenty to threaten City
Across the opening three Premier League matchdays, Manchester United had registered 68 shots, the most in the Premier League, while their 7.3 expected goals was also the league’s highest number. Their 19 shots on target were matched only by Manchester City.
Michael Carrick’s side also responded strongly in midweek, beating Sabah 4-0 in their Champions League opener. Manchester United were in fine form as they dismantled the Azerbaijani debutants with goals coming in from Matheus Cunha, Benjamin Sesko, Lisandro Martinez and Bruno Fernandes.
Home form could be another major factor for the Manchester Derby. Since Michael Carrick returned to the dugout in January, Manchester United have won nine of their 10 home Premier League games, with the only defeat coming against Arsenal. They have also scored at least twice in each of those nine victories.
Michael Carrick knows exactly what a Manchester derby win can do, too. His first Premier League game back in charge was against Manchester City, when his United secured an emphatic 2-0 victory through goals from Bryan Mbeumo and Patrick Dorgu.
Manchester City arrive in strong form
City, however, have plenty going for them. Enzo Maresca’s team have won all three league games and followed that up with a 2-0 Champions League victory over Porto.
Another win on Sunday would give City their best start to a Premier League season after four games for the seventh time.
Erling Haaland will also be one of the biggest threats. City have never lost a Manchester derby in which the Norwegian has scored, although only two of his derby goals have come at Old Trafford.
United will hope Marcus Rashford can provide a similar answer. He has scored in his last two Premier League appearances against Manchester City, while Sunday could also be a landmark occasion for Luke Shaw. Should he feature, it will be his 300th appearance for the club.
Luke Shaw has already started 41 consecutive Premier League games for United, but he missed the win over Sabah after Michael Carrick opted to manage his minutes.
With City starting perfectly and United improving at home, the Opta computer prediction may favour the visitors, but the gap is hardly decisive. This Manchester derby looks capable of going either way.
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