The stats show that Newcastle have been bullied and outfought in games this season but the return of Joelinton can counter that
Matthias Jaissle, Head Coach of Newcastle United, laughs with Joelinton of Newcastle United following the pre-season friendly match between Valencia and Newcastle
Joelinton’s transformation under Eddie Howe - evolving from a struggling forward into a physically dominant, box-to-box midfielder - has made him one of Newcastle United’s most indispensable players. Now it's time for Matthias Jaissle to unleash him again.
The Brazilian has had to sit out the start of the Premier League season under the new manager after suffering a thigh injury in the summer. It was the latest in a string of setbacks for the big Brazilian which has has hampered his progress over the last 18 months.
It means Jaissle has seen very little of the powerhouse midfield man on the pitch. And while Newcastle have made a solid start to the season without their new vice captain, his presence has undoubtedly been missed.
Joelinton's ability to break up opposition play, win aerial duels, and drive the ball forward provides the structural balance that allows Newcastle's midfield to function effectively.
Since January 2022, his presence has directly correlated with Newcastle's success. A basic scratching of the surface vividly illustrates how much the team struggles in his absence.
The drop-off in performance without the Brazilian enforcer is severe. During the 2025/26 Premier League campaign, Newcastle's win percentage cratered when he was out of the starting lineup. With Joelinton, they won 44.4% of games; without him it was an abject 18.2%.
This trend of dependency has been consistent across the 2022/23, 2023/24, and 2024/25 seasons. Throughout this period, Newcastle has consistently maintained a win rate hovering around 45% to 50% when their core midfield (featuring Joelinton and Bruno Guimaraes) is intact. However, in matches where Joelinton is sidelined by suspension or injury, the win rate frequently plummets into the 15% to 25% range across all competitions.
Without his defensive work rate - he regularly averages upwards of 50 tackles and 20 interceptions over a 24-game span - Newcastle often loses the physical battle in the centre of the pitch, leading to increased pressure on the backline and fewer transition opportunities for the forwards.
During the 2025/26 Premier League season, Joelinton was highly effective in his physical battles, recording a 50.3% success rate in overall duels and an even stronger 57.3% win rate in aerial duels. In total, he won 149 duels during that campaign.
For Newcastle United's current 2026/27 campaign, the team has accumulated 244 total duels won, including 76 aerial duels won across their opening matches. Breaking that down into some tough games, some of the results send alarm bells ringing.
Against Leeds, Newcastle only won 44% of duels in the first half which saw them dominated physically by the home side. They trailed 3-0 at the break as a result.
And while they bounced back a few days later to beat Hull City, the second half stats were even more alarming with Newcastle winning just 37% of the duels as they desperately fought to keep their lead under a barrage of pressure.
Of course, the potential return of Nico Gonzalez will help bolster Newcastle's midfield. The Spaniard was taken off early against Leeds with concussion, meaning Premier League protocols prevented him from appearing against Hull five days later. If fit, he is likely to start in the engine room.
Gonzalez offers a different dimension to Sean Steur and even Lewis Miley but who lines up alongside him could be key. Joelinton is fit and raring to go, ready to be unleashed after returning to training during the international break. While he may not possess the technical skills of Steur or the calmness of Miley, his physical prowess in the centre of the park will ensure United aren't bullied on their travels.
The big Brazilian has been written off many times in the past, no more so than during his ill-fated role as a forward. But with Sandro Tonali and Guimaraes long gone, the one remaining member of the Holy Trinity is arguably as important as he's ever been in Newcastle's new era.