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Five Knee-Jerk Reactions as the Premier League 2026-27 Returns

After an eventful first weekend of Premier League football following three weeks off, we sum up the action with five hastily made conclusions.

Following the international break, we’re back with our weekly round-up of the Premier League action with a dose of knee-jerk reactions.

Usually, we take our time and use big data sets to come to our conclusions, but here, we only need a single round of matches to make our minds up.

Sometimes these prove to be no more than knee-jerk reactions, but there are times when a slightly deeper delve into the numbers suggests that there might actually be some truth to them.

Read on to see what you make of this week’s takeaways.

Red Cards Don’t Matter Any More

Are Premier League players now so fit that they are equipped to deal with the challenge of having a man sent off? The evidence of Saturday (though very much not Sunday) suggests that’s one possibility.

First, Brighton were reduced to 10 men when Pascal Struijk was dismissed just 12 minutes into the second half at Sunderland, but still went on to win. Fabian Hürzeler’s men managed the game exceptionally well and, despite being at a one-man disadvantage, kept their opponents at arm’s length. They ‘won’ the period in which they were playing with 10 men by a goal to nil and wrapped up a 2-0 victory.

Then, in the late kick-off, Spurs had Rodrigo Bentancur sent off when they were a goal down at Manchester United. They seized the initiative, though, and eventually found a well-deserved equaliser when Dominic Solanke headed in late on. They were so superior during that period that it appeared as though it was United who’d had the man sent off.

Modern tactical systems are so meticulously planned that, in normal circumstances, any space that opens up can be exploited ruthlessly. But in these two games, it was the team a man down who thrived. Sunderland and United clearly didn’t like having the impetus on them to go out and grab the game.

This probably isn’t a sign of the times, though. Other than those two games, City at United is the only other example of a team going down to 10 men and avoiding defeat in the Premier League this season; the other six have all lost. Of course, we saw City take full advantage of Liverpool going a man down on Sunday at Anfield.

Instead, it just reflects poorly on Sunderland and United, who could not take charge when they really should have.

Ipswich’s Late Shows Can Keep Them Up

Trailing to Ryan Sessegnon’s 55th-minute goal, Ipswich Town were heading for defeat against Fulham on Saturday, only for their late powers of recovery to kick in once again.

Abdoul Ouattara equalised in the 88th minute, before Dara O’Shea won it in stoppage time to send Portman Road into delirium.

O’Shea’s goal at 90:59 was the third 90th-minute winner that Ipswich have scored in the Premier League this season; the only other side to have done so even once are Manchester City (1).

Ipswich v Fulham xG race

It began with Jack Clarke’s late winner against Sunderland on the opening day of the season, before Zian Flemming struck to secure victory at Crystal Palace just before the international break.

It means that with 32 games still to go, the Tractor Boys are just one 90th-minute winner off tying the Premier League record for most in a season. There have been six instances of a team scoring four in a campaign: Sunderland in 2007-08, Liverpool in 2008-09, Everton in 2009-10, Newcastle in 2012-13, Leeds in 2021-22, and Liverpool in 2025-26.

And that knack of nicking late points can really add up. Gary O’Neil’s side have earned an extra six points already this season via stoppage-time winners, which is significant when you consider they only won 22 points in total the last time they were in the top flight in 2024-25.

Ipswich have won three of their first six Premier League games in a season for only the second time, after 1993-94 (W3 D2 L1); it took them 19 games to win as many as three in 2024-25.

Will that be enough to keep them up? We’ll have to wait and see, but their ability to finish strongly has given them a pretty good start.

Champions League Race Will Be Closest in Years

While excellence of course makes for the best kind of sporting competition, widespread fallibility is the next best thing, and it looks like we might just have that in abundance this season.

The teams currently in fourth and fifth, Brentford and Everton, probably won’t be there at the end of the season, but the fact that they are in the Champions League spots (if fifth again earns a place) with just two wins from six is noteworthy.

That’s a win percentage of 33.3% which, over the course of a 38-game season, would equate to 12.7 wins. Everton finished 13th with 13 wins last season.

Premier League table 2026-27 - 12 Oct 2026

Thirteen wins won’t be enough to get into the Champions League but the fact that teams are flying so high right now having failed to win twice as many games (four) as they’ve won (two) speaks to the inconsistency of every team outside the top two (and, for now, Brighton).

If Chelsea, Liverpool, Man Utd, Newcastle, Aston Villa and Spurs – the usual suspects in the race for European qualification – all continue as they have begun, spaces will open up for the most competitive Champions League race ever.

Age is Just a Number

Lionel Messi has long been proving as much on the international stage but, well, he is the greatest footballer of all time, and can hardly be taken as the rule for everyone else.

But a few golden oldies are showing that there is life in some Premier League old dogs, too. This weekend, top of this particular pile were Jordan Henderson and Pascal Groß.

Henderson was the star of the show at Stamford Bridge, where Chelsea thrashed Bournemouth 5-1, the 36-year-old scoring twice – both from outside the box – and providing an assist. He became Chelsea’s oldest English goalscorer in the Premier League (36y 115d) since John Terry against Watford in May 2017 (36y 159d), as well as the seventh-oldest player ever to be directly involved in three goals in a Premier League game. Cristiano Ronaldo aside, he was the oldest since Ryan Giggs vs Fulham 15 years ago, in December 2011.

02:29 – Only Emile Heskey against Derby County in April 1998 inside the opening two minutes has a player both scored and assisted earlier in a Premier League game than Jordan Henderson against Bournemouth (02:29).

Rapid. pic.twitter.com/VJsTqKcgP3

— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) October 10, 2026

Groß, meanwhile, became the oldest player to provide an assist in three successive Premier League games since Giggs in February 2012 (38y 68d).

Giggs, Ronaldo and Terry are Premier League legends who played later than most. They were exceptions rather than the rule. But could it be that more and more players will continue performing at the top level later into their careers? Henderson and Groß are making it look like that may be the case.

Profligate Forest Will Be Sucked into A(nother) Relegation Battle

Oliver Glasner’s return to Crystal Palace with Nottingham Forest was always going to be interesting, and it ultimately proved to be a very frustrating day.

His Forest side largely dominated at Selhurst Park, particularly in the first half. Dan Ndoye gave them the lead in just the third minute, and that was one of 16 shots and six ‘big chances’ Forest had in the opening half alone.

However, it was the only goal Forest managed, with Palace somehow turning things around to lead 2-1 at the break.

The game ended 3-1, with the visitors recording 24 shots and eight big chances in total. Concerningly, it wasn’t the first time this season that Forest were made to pay for being wasteful in front of goal.

Nottingham Forest xG after 6 games 2026-27

Glasner’s men have scored just five goals from 10.3 expected goals (xG) in the Premier League this season, an underperformance of 5.3 goals, which is the worst in the division. Only six teams have recorded a higher xG than Forest this season, but only two have scored fewer goals.

The moment that seemed to sum it up most on Sunday was when Liam Delap was presented with a simple chance from point-blank range after Morgan Gibbs-White’s chip came back off the bar, and the former Chelsea striker just slammed his shot straight into Palace goalkeeper Walter Benítez when it looked far easier to score.

Forest aren’t playing badly, but they’ll need to start putting their chances away soon if they want to avoid another relegation battle this season.

Premier League Opta Stats

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